Benfica v Porto Betting Tips & Preview – Sunday 15th April 2018

We have a potentially title deciding match in the Portuguese top flight on our hands this weekend with league leaders Benfica taking on Porto at the Estadio da Luz. Just one point separates these sides at the top of the table and tensions will be sky high with so few games left to play. It’s a must win clash for Porto, anything less will keep Benfica as the strong favourites for a fifth consecutive Primeira Liga title.

Top Tips

Benfica to win @ 13/10

Over 2.5 goals @ 7/10

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Benfica Form

A run of nine consecutive victories in the Portuguese top flight has seen Benfica climb to the top of the table. While they have been the favourites for all the matches, having the consistency to claim three points each time is much easier said than done. What’s been particularly impressive during their winning streak is the comfort of their wins, eight being by at least a two goal margin. The only time the Eagles were made to sweat was last weekend against Vitoria Setubal, a game which was only settled by an injury time Jimenez penalty.

Raul Jimenez grabbed both goals that day but it is the Brazilian Jonas who Benfica will look to for score here. The 34-year-old already has 33 league goals to his name, making this the most productive season of his career. Rui Vitoria’s men are not a one man side however and much of their recent success also stems from their well organised defence. The Reds have managed four clean sheets in their last five matches and with just five home goals conceded all season, no team in the Primeira Liga has a stronger record.

MatchDateScoreResult
Vitoria Setubal v Benfica 7th April 2018 1-2 Win
Benfica v Vitoria Guimaraes 31st March 2018 2-0 Win
Feirense v Benfica 17th March 2018 0-2 Win

Porto Form

Porto didn’t let being hammered 5-0 by Liverpool in the Champions League have a negative impact on their league form, going on to win the next four matches before the second leg. Things have tailed off however since the second leg clash against the Merseysiders which finished 0-0. Porto have lost two matches since that draw in early March against sides they should not be dropping points to. Defeats to mid-table Belenenses and relegation candidates Pacos de Ferreira are cause for concern for boss Sergio Conceicao.

It will come as no surprise to find out that both the defeats came outside of the Estadio do Dragao. Porto have dropped just two points at home all season yet on the road they’ve missed out on 12. A big reason behind their recent shortcomings on the road is the injury to striker Moussa Marega. The Dragons failed to convert their chances in both losses and they are scoring far less freely without the Malian at their disposal. Strike partner Vincent Aboubakar has been available but he’s going through a bit of a drought at the moment, managing just one goal in his last 12 Porto appearances.

MatchDateScoreResult
Porto v Desportivo Aves 8th April 2018 2-0 Win
Belenenses v Porto 2nd April 2018 0-2 Loss
Porto v Boavista 17th March 2018 2-0 Win

Head to Head Stats

Given that Benfica have been crowned kings of Portuguese football for the past four seasons, their record against Porto is a surprisingly poor one, without a win in the last six meetings. This fixture between two of Portugal’s biggest sides has tended to be a cagey one with few goals scored. Only once in the last seven clashes has there been over 2.5 goals.

DateHomeScoreAwayResultCompetition
1st Dec 2017 Porto 0 - 0 Benfica Draw Primeira Liga
1st Apr 2017 Benfica 1 - 1 Porto Draw Primeira Liga
6th Nov 2016 Porto 1 - 1 Benfica Draw Primeira Liga

Injuries & Suspensions

Both Jonas and Marega, two hugely influential players for their respective clubs, are doubts for this game. Whether or not they are declared fit to play will have a huge bearing on how this match pans out.

Benfica

  • Jonas - Sat out last weekend with a minor back problem.
  • Filip Krovinovic - Out for the season with ruptured cruciate ligament.

Porto

  • Moussa Marega - Hamstring issue has kept him out for over a month.
  • Danilo Pereira - Is set to miss the World Cup after a recent Achilles tendon rupture.

Betting Tips

With star striker Jonas back in training and likely to feature here, Benfica look set to beat Porto for the first time since 2014.

Benfica to win

Benfica have the superior form and the benefit of the home crowd ahead of this crucial match. They’ve dropped just one point on home soil all season and playing at the Estadio da Luz gives them confidence. Also aiding their cause is the injury to the highly rated Danilo Pereira. The visiting side will miss the protection he offers the back four and Benfica will find it easier to make a breakthrough with the midfielder out.

Under 2.5 goals

Recent history tells us that this match is unlikely to be free flowing affair with end to end football. The last 12 times these sides have met across all competitions, only during three of them have there been more than 2.5 goals. With Porto looking lacklustre in front of goal of late and potentially being without their top scorer once again, backing under 2.5 goals looks to be a safe bet.

Jonas to score

The Brazilian has averaged considerably more than a goal a game in the Portuguese top flight. He is somewhat of a flat track bully but is still a tempting bet as an anytime goalscorer especially as he’s Benfica’s first choice penalty taker.

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