Italian Grand Prix Betting Tips & Preview – Sunday 2nd September 2018

Italian Grand Prix Track Guide

Lewis Hamilton still leads the way at the top of the standings, but his world title hopes took a hit last weekend. The Mercedes man finished second behind Sebastian Vettel, who has cut the gap between the two down to just 17 points. He’s out to shorten that gap yet again this weekend, as he chases maximum points at Monza.

Returning to Italy is always going to be huge for Ferrari, and even with their title hopes resting on a German they’ll have a strong backing at Monza. There are clear concerns for Mercedes ahead of this race, with Ferrari coming here in great form and the car looking super-quick. They’re chasing another victory, and given their pace in Belgium, this could be another big weekend for Vettel.

Top Tips

Sebastian Vettel to win @ 10/11

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Race Info

With just eight races to go, the title race hangs in the balance at Monza. This historic venue has long been a staple of F1, with the first race here coming back in 1922. Things have changed in the almost 100 years since, but Monza has hosted the Italian Grand Prix every year bar one since, which has helped make it one of the most iconic circuits in the sport.

RoundCountryCircuitRace Distance
14/21 Italy Autodromo Nazionale Monza 306km / 53 Laps


 DateStart TimeFinish TimeForecast ConditionsTV Coverage
Practice 1 Fri 31st Aug 10:00 11:30 Dry / 21° -
Practice 2 Fri 31st Aug 14:00 15:30 Dry / 23° -
Practice 3 Sat 1st Sept 11:00 12:30 Dry / 19° -
Qualifying Sat 1st Sept 14:00 15:00 Dry / 21° Sky F1
Race Sun 2nd Sept 14:10 16:10 Dry / 24° Sky F1

Last Season's Result (2017)

Hamilton won here a year ago, in a dramatic weekend in Italy. We saw a spate of grid penalties, which forced the two Red Bull drivers down the pecking order. Despite that, Vettel only managed to start in sixth place on the grid, but he did work his way back to get on the podium. He trailed behind the two Mercedes drivers, who scooped up 43 points with a great weekend in Monza.

Vettel’s comeback wasn’t the most impressive of the weekend, as Daniel Ricciardo came back from 16th in the grid to finish fourth. After being hit with grid penalties, he still fought back to record a respectable finish. His Red Bull teammate Max Verstappen didn’t quite manage the same, as he finished with a single point after finishing 10th.

PositionDriverCarGrid PositionPoints
1 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 1 25
2 Valtteri Bottas Mercedes 4 18
3 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari 6 15
4 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull 16 12
5 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari 5 10
6 Esteban Ocon Force India 3 8
7 Lance Stroll Williams 2 6
8 Felipe Massa Williams 7 4
9 Sergio Perez Force India 10 2
10 Max Verstappen Red Bull 13 1

Race News: Supercharged Ferrari Frighten the Field

Despite looking good for the title a week ago, fears are growing around the Mercedes camp. They’re reportedly confused by the sudden change of pace by Ferrari, who blitzed the competition in Belgium last week. From nowhere they have seemingly opened up a gulf, and the Scuderia’s rivals are seemingly struggling to find a way to respond ahead of Monza.

Ferrari’s leap forward comes from their upgraded engine, something Hamilton labelled as a “concern” ahead of the Italian Grand Prix. The Silver Arrows have been bluffing all season, making themselves out to be underdogs in an even race, but Hamilton and the rest of his team seem genuinely afraid of their rivals ahead of this weekend.

Analysis: Ferrari on 20 Trail

Ferrari head into this race as the most successful team at the Italian Grand Prix, but they’ve been on 19 victories since their last win here in 2010. This weekend seems like a great chance for them to end that wait, and finally claim a 20th win at Monza. The power is clearly there, they’re coming off the back of a win, and now Mercedes are desperately trying to come up with answers.

The Silver Arrows are trying to take risks in order to catch up, but they don’t seem confident. It’s tough to see Hamilton repeating his 2017 win here based on the pace of Ferrari last weekend, so this could be the perfect chance for the “home” team to record yet another success at this venue.

Final Verdict: Vettel To Win

Vettel comes into this race in fine form, and he’s got the power behind him to build on that recent success. The manner of his win last weekend can’t be underplayed. They needed a result at that moment, and the season could change off the back of that victory in Belgium. However, the stakes are huge this weekend, as Vettel will be hoping his team can help him to glory again at their home Grand Prix.

We think Vettel at 10/11 represents excellent value to win this race, based on the improvement we’ve seen from Ferrari after the break. We’re going with the German to win the GP, while he’s available at 8/11 to take pole. You can also find 10/11 on both of the Ferrari drivers making the top three at the Italian Grand Prix. Given the setting and the pace the pair have to work with, that seems like a solid choice for the weekend.

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