Italian Grand Prix Betting Tips & Preview – Sunday 2nd September 2018

Italian Grand Prix Track Guide

Lewis Hamilton still leads the way at the top of the standings, but his world title hopes took a hit last weekend. The Mercedes man finished second behind Sebastian Vettel, who has cut the gap between the two down to just 17 points. He’s out to shorten that gap yet again this weekend, as he chases maximum points at Monza.

Returning to Italy is always going to be huge for Ferrari, and even with their title hopes resting on a German they’ll have a strong backing at Monza. There are clear concerns for Mercedes ahead of this race, with Ferrari coming here in great form and the car looking super-quick. They’re chasing another victory, and given their pace in Belgium, this could be another big weekend for Vettel.

Top Tips

Sebastian Vettel to win @ 10/11

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Race Info

With just eight races to go, the title race hangs in the balance at Monza. This historic venue has long been a staple of F1, with the first race here coming back in 1922. Things have changed in the almost 100 years since, but Monza has hosted the Italian Grand Prix every year bar one since, which has helped make it one of the most iconic circuits in the sport.

RoundCountryCircuitRace Distance
14/21 Italy Autodromo Nazionale Monza 306km / 53 Laps


 DateStart TimeFinish TimeForecast ConditionsTV Coverage
Practice 1 Fri 31st Aug 10:00 11:30 Dry / 21° -
Practice 2 Fri 31st Aug 14:00 15:30 Dry / 23° -
Practice 3 Sat 1st Sept 11:00 12:30 Dry / 19° -
Qualifying Sat 1st Sept 14:00 15:00 Dry / 21° Sky F1
Race Sun 2nd Sept 14:10 16:10 Dry / 24° Sky F1

Last Season's Result (2017)

Hamilton won here a year ago, in a dramatic weekend in Italy. We saw a spate of grid penalties, which forced the two Red Bull drivers down the pecking order. Despite that, Vettel only managed to start in sixth place on the grid, but he did work his way back to get on the podium. He trailed behind the two Mercedes drivers, who scooped up 43 points with a great weekend in Monza.

Vettel’s comeback wasn’t the most impressive of the weekend, as Daniel Ricciardo came back from 16th in the grid to finish fourth. After being hit with grid penalties, he still fought back to record a respectable finish. His Red Bull teammate Max Verstappen didn’t quite manage the same, as he finished with a single point after finishing 10th.

PositionDriverCarGrid PositionPoints
1 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 1 25
2 Valtteri Bottas Mercedes 4 18
3 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari 6 15
4 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull 16 12
5 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari 5 10
6 Esteban Ocon Force India 3 8
7 Lance Stroll Williams 2 6
8 Felipe Massa Williams 7 4
9 Sergio Perez Force India 10 2
10 Max Verstappen Red Bull 13 1

Race News: Supercharged Ferrari Frighten the Field

Despite looking good for the title a week ago, fears are growing around the Mercedes camp. They’re reportedly confused by the sudden change of pace by Ferrari, who blitzed the competition in Belgium last week. From nowhere they have seemingly opened up a gulf, and the Scuderia’s rivals are seemingly struggling to find a way to respond ahead of Monza.

Ferrari’s leap forward comes from their upgraded engine, something Hamilton labelled as a “concern” ahead of the Italian Grand Prix. The Silver Arrows have been bluffing all season, making themselves out to be underdogs in an even race, but Hamilton and the rest of his team seem genuinely afraid of their rivals ahead of this weekend.

Analysis: Ferrari on 20 Trail

Ferrari head into this race as the most successful team at the Italian Grand Prix, but they’ve been on 19 victories since their last win here in 2010. This weekend seems like a great chance for them to end that wait, and finally claim a 20th win at Monza. The power is clearly there, they’re coming off the back of a win, and now Mercedes are desperately trying to come up with answers.

The Silver Arrows are trying to take risks in order to catch up, but they don’t seem confident. It’s tough to see Hamilton repeating his 2017 win here based on the pace of Ferrari last weekend, so this could be the perfect chance for the “home” team to record yet another success at this venue.

Final Verdict: Vettel To Win

Vettel comes into this race in fine form, and he’s got the power behind him to build on that recent success. The manner of his win last weekend can’t be underplayed. They needed a result at that moment, and the season could change off the back of that victory in Belgium. However, the stakes are huge this weekend, as Vettel will be hoping his team can help him to glory again at their home Grand Prix.

We think Vettel at 10/11 represents excellent value to win this race, based on the improvement we’ve seen from Ferrari after the break. We’re going with the German to win the GP, while he’s available at 8/11 to take pole. You can also find 10/11 on both of the Ferrari drivers making the top three at the Italian Grand Prix. Given the setting and the pace the pair have to work with, that seems like a solid choice for the weekend.


Italian Grand Prix Monza 2012
David Baxendale, Flickr

The Italian Grand Prix, as well as the British Grand Prix, has been held every year since the start of the Formula 1 championship races in 1950. The track is synonymous with motor racing and whilst not the official home of Ferrari, it is widely considered to be the motor racing home for one of the most famous Italian exports.

The host of the grand prix is that of Monza, which in itself has played a huge role in the success of Italian motorsports. It’s seen many layouts and formats over the years and tweaks have been made tonto only make the track safer, but also more exciting for both drivers and fans.

Track Highlights

Italian Grand Prix Monza 2012 Track & Audience
David Baxendale, Flickr

Monza is the fastest and one of the most historic circuits in Formula 1. Situated in the picturesque Royal Park, a short drive north of Milan in Northern Italy, Monza is known as the “Temple of Speed”, with drivers at full throttle for three quarters of the 5.37km lap. As a result, the teams set up their cars with very low downforce, which increases the top speeds as it creates less drag through the air.

The long straights are made up of famous corners, such as Curva Grande, Variante della Roggia, Varianre del Rettifilio and Variante Ascari, to make up what Italian’s call the Magic Track. For many, there is no other track that captures the sport like Monza does. The Ferrari fans turn the racetrack red and a true carnival atmosphere is set up for the entire race weekend.

The track starts on the pit straight, which is also the first DRS Zone on track. The drivers reach speeds in excess of 340kmph and they are constantly looking left for the 100 yard board, which is the start of a brutal breaking zone before heading into a very tight chicane where cars get as slow as just 70kmph. The drivers must kiss the apex on each corner to make sure they get optimum drive through and out of this section.

The next section is through Curva Grande and it’s all about being as flat out as possible without scrubbing too much of the tyre. The cars will be situated just inside the apex for this exact reason and they are pretty much at top speed by the time they see the bridge and start breaking into the next turn.

The second chicane now greets the drivers and again, they must use as much of the kerb as possible here, where are fairly tame compared to most tracks. The drivers then head under the trees and the light change here as a result is often something that has been compared to the tunnel in Monaco and something that often catches drivers out in terms of nailing the most optimal line through here.

The cars are then going through a short run into the second of the two middle section corners. A good line is imperative as they must get a good drive into the back straight and utilise another DRS zone. The cars then head back down the bank before coming back up and hitting the Ascri chicane. They are carrying huge speed into the left hander and then the right handers here, again using as much of the track as possible to get the best possible run out.

Coming out of the final part of the chicane, the drivers then need to be able to run slightly wide before a look along another of the longer straights. Cars will be hitting almost top speed here of 340kmph and trying as hard as they might to not scrub any speed along here.

The final corner sees the cars sweep through at around 240kmph and with it try and find the straightest line possible to start the next lap. Whilst the final corner seems pretty tame, it’s actually been the scene of many races that have seen last minute overtaking with drivers becoming too cautious and not getting on the throttle quick enough before crossing the line.


Italian Grand Prix 1931
Italian Grand Prix 1931 © Agence de presse Meurisse (Public Domain)

The track was initially built in 1922 and was financed by the Milan Automobile Club. It’s maiden race was that of the Italian Grand Prix and with it has been the scene of some of the most iconic races in the world as a result.

The current set up sees three tracks in total. The Oval, the Combined course and the Modern Grand Prix Circuit. The Grand Prix circuit has seen many changes over the years, as you would expect, with the original track having just 8 corners in total, to the most recent version including 11, mainly added to slow cars down because of safety concerns, but also to promote overtaking.

2008 – Youngest Ever Winner

In 2008, Sebastian Vettel made history at the Italian Grand Prix, Monza, where he became the youngest ever winner of a Formal race in the history of the sport. The rain came down, which played into the German’s hands, before then going on to securing pole, before taking off after a safety car start leading the whole race – bar 4 laps when pitting – and securing his first win.

1996 – Schumacher & Ferrari

Schumacher had just taken the hot seat in what was a failing Ferrari team at the time. They had won just two races in 5 seasons and were widely regarded as a “had been” of Formula 1. But, Schumacher had already managed to win in Spain and then again in Belgium, before going on to win at the home of Ferrari, cement his place in the Ferrari and Monza folk law in a very short space of time.

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