Correct score betting is one of the most popular formats for any bookmaker. The concept is pretty simple in that all you need to do is predict the correct full time score for that match. The problems occur when the realisation of predicting exactly the right score for any match is actually very difficult. But, the flip side of this is that these sorts of bets actually prove to be really good value, with odds often upwards of 7.00.
The market will generally only include games up to 90 minutes (including injury time of both the first and second half). There may be times where bookmakers will include the correct score for games moving into extra time, but generally these will be an in-play market and only come to fruition should that game head into extra time.
Correct Score Betting Strategy
There are quite a few ways that you can apply betting strategy to correct score betting and ones that we would recommend that you at least give a go.
Short Price Favourites
Short price favourites are often bets that as bettors, we tend to avoid. Backing a team to win a match at 1.05 is almost pointless and provides very little return for the average bookmaker. But, the thing is with these sorts of games is that the bookmaker is predicting goals with these games and for that team to win comfortably.
These short priced bets often need a bit of creativity to find some real value, and more often than not, this can come from the correct score market. For example, a game that is taking place with one team priced at 1.05 is essentially taking the result of that team losing out of the equation. This means that we can narrow down our correct score bets to that of one team. A good start!
Next up, as we mentioned, the price would also indicate that these teams are gong to win and win well. So, we can probably eliminate low scoring games such as 1-0, 2-0, 1-1 and even 2-1. Now we need to start to do a little research to see two things;
- How the short priced favourite have been performing in recent games
- Previous results and more importantly, score lines of the opposition team.
Essentially we are going to be looking at scores from 3-0 and upward. We may even find a point were score lines such as 6-0, 7-0 and possibly even higher could be a possibility. Often with these types of bets the higher the number of goals, the greater the odds.
Trending Score Lines
It’s not uncommon for teams to have a trending score line throughout one season. For example, Arsenal fans still chant ‘1-0 to the Arsenal’ when they go 1-0 up after they were famed for consistently beating teams 1-0. In the 2015/16 season Leicester racked up 7 1-0 victories in total, with a streak of 4 in a row at one point. The team also won 14 of their 23 wins throughout the season by just one goal.
Taking all this into account it allows us to start targeting similar score lines if we were to back Leicester to win in a correct score bet. So, scores such as 1-0, 2-1, 3-2 are going to be firm favourites when backing a team such as Leicester.
Due to the odds that are on offer with the correct score category a decent strategy to include is that of placing several bets on the same match. This will allow you a much wider spread of goals for that match and in turn, increase your chances of winning.
The downside is that you will have to invest more money into each bet. For example, if you normally place a £10 bet on the correct score market, placing several bets will increase this amount. Alternatively to this, you could simply split up your original stake. So, if you decided that you want to back two separate scores then you’d simply place £5 on each.
Having multiple selections is a still going to allow you to gain a tidy profit from these selections. The average correct score favourite will usually be priced around 5.00 with most bookmakers. Even if you place 3 correct score bets with a £10 stake on each (assuming all 5.00) you’re still going to be making £20 profit if one of your selections comes in.
Cover bets are where you can include a number of outcomes in one bet slip and they get broken down into a combination of singles, doubles, trebles and so on. A Lucky15 would allow you to choose 4 correct scores from 4 separate games. The chances of picking all for correct scores is going to be slim, so betting on accumulator, whilst giving you massive odds, is going to rarely pay out.
The Lucky 15 will allow to have wrong selections whilst still making money if you get just one of your selections correct. The Lucky 15 bet will be broken down into 4 singles, 6 doubles, 4 trebles and 1 four-fold accumulator bet. You’re still going to be giving yourself the opportunity to win big if all 4 results came in, but also give you cover if one or two results let you down.
The draw is a really good section of the market to target with the correct result. You first need to find out which games you think will end as a draw, which isn’t always that easy, but we will say that the Premier League is good one for these bets as they are often very competitive on the whole. Once you have the game you think is going to be a draw, you then really only need to pick from 4 selections, which are 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 and 3-3. There will be times score lines exceed these, but they are going to be few and far between, and almost impossible to predict.
A little trick that we like to use for the draw bet is using a bet365. At bet365 they run a promotion called bore draw money back guarantee where on certain markets you can get a refund on your bet if the match finishes 0-0. Luckily for us, one of the included market is that of the correct score. Whilst we aren’t suggesting that don’t bet on the 0-0 bet for your correct score, having it as guaranteed return if that score line does come in is more than handy. It also allows you to eliminate another possible score line, reducing your picks to just 3 for draw results.
Trading on the correct score market is quite complex and really needs its own article to get into the nitty gritty of how it all works. We aren’t going to go into that here, but we will say that the correct score market is a real favourite for some of the best traders in the industry.
The basic concept is that of simply backing the correct result score line and then trading off when a goal is scored to guarantee a profit on all results. As we said, there’s a lot more to it than that, but if you have a spare hour or two, it’s worth investigating.