Millwall v Brighton & Hove Albion Betting Tips & Predictions – Sunday 17th March 2019

Only two non-Premier League teams survived the fifth round of the FA Cup, Millwall being one of them. The Lions’ reward for seeing off AFC Wimbledon in the previous stage is a home clash with Brighton, far from the worst draw the numbered balls could have dealt them. The Lions will be sniffing a Wembley semi final and whilst they have big issues in the league they will be fully committed to this game against a side they know they have a real chance against.

It was at this stage of the competition where Brighton bowed out last year but they are the favourites to end up victorious at The Den this Sunday. They ought to be wary of their Championship opponents though given their cup record against top flight sides. Since 2017 the London club have knocked Bournemouth, Leicester, Watford and Everton out of the cup. It’s going back some time now but they also made the final in 2004, when current manager Neil Harris was among the starting XI!

Top Tips

Millwall to Qualify @ 5/4

Both Teams to Score @ 10/11

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Millwall News: Thompson double ends losing streak

South Stand at Millwall's New Den
Ungry Young Man, flickr (Image Cropped)

Four defeats on the trot for Millwall saw them teeter dangerously close to the bottom three ahead of the Championship’s mid-week fixtures. They are still just the one point from danger but their 2-0 victory away at play-off chasing Birmingham on Wednesday ensured they avoided dropping into the bottom three. Few were tipping the Lions to win the clash but Ben Thompson’s brace got the job done in the Midlands. How important may the unexpected three points prove to be in a gripping fight for Championship survival? One thing is for sure, it sets them up very nicely for this game and also allows them to fully focus on the cup without overly pressing relegation concerns.

Brighton & Hove Albion News: Bissouma misses out

Approach to Brighton's Amex Stadium

A rule change implemented at the start of this season means that any player who collects two bookings in the FA Cup will automatically miss the next game. The accumulation of yellow cards didn’t used to be competition-specific but with it being so now, Yves Bissouma must sit out this weekend’s match.

The Malian was booked late on in the replay with West Brom and in the fifth round victory over Derby. Having played 26 times for the Seagulls this season, his suspension is a blow but not one Chris Hughton can't cope with.

Andone in race to be fit

Brighton are hoping that striker Florin Andone will recover in time for this cup clash after injuring his thigh last weekend. The striker was set to start against rivals Crystal Palace but developed a problem during the warm-up. Hughton will no doubt be hoping the 25-year-old recovers from his problem in time as he’s already fired in two goals from three FA Cup appearances. Should the game come too soon however, the job of leading the line will go to either Jurgen Locadia or more likely, reliable veteran Glenn Murray.

Analysis: Lions lifted by recent win

Had Millwall dropped into the relegation zone in mid-week, their players may have felt considerably less confident about overcoming their cup opponents this weekend. By beating Birmingham however, the Lions will be in fine spirits ahead of what is a welcome distraction to a gruelling league season.

Millwall to claim another big scalp

Several Premier League clubs have succumbed to Millwall’s strength in the FA Cup in recent seasons and Brighton could well be the next. The Seagulls picked up an away win at Palace last weekend but their performance was far from fantastic, with the Eagles dominating every statistic going.

Hughton’s men often aren’t at their best outside the Amex Stadium and the absence of Bissouma and possibly Andone aren’t going to help them find their best form. You can argue Millwall have been struggling a little at The Den of late but recent losses have come against two of the Championship’s in-form sides in Preston and league leaders Norwich. Against a less confident outfit, back the hosts to make it through to the semi-finals (5/4).

No clean sheets at The Den

Hughton appears to have tinkered with his tactics as Brighton’s last seven away matches across all competitions have seen both teams find the net. The Seagulls were once known for being reserved on their travels but they now have a greater desire to attack, especially when not facing a top Premier League side. Both teams have also scored in four of Millwall’s past five matches, making it a very well-priced bet here at 10/11. The hosts do lack the firepower of most teams in the Championship but are deadly from set-pieces, having netted 16 league goals from dead ball situations this season. The Premier League outfit will be a little unaccustomed to their physical approach and so corners and free kicks look likely to be very dangerous for the home side.

Recent Matches

You’ll struggle to find two other teams that have a more even head to head record over the last decade than Millwall and Brighton. No more than a single goal has decided any of their last 11 clashes with six of them in this time ending up all square. With both still fighting relegation they will both be glad this one must be settled on the day.

17th March 2015: Millwall 0 – 0 Brighton & Hove Albion

Millwall’s new caretaker boss Neil Harris refused to accept relegation was inevitable after this low quality draw left his men eight points shy of safety. A draw was perhaps a generous result for them too having seen their bar rattled by Joe Bennet’s free-kick. Leon Best also came close for the visitors late on but his tame header ensured that Brighton’s two-month wait for an away win continued.

12th December 2014: Brighton & Hove Albion 0 – 1 Millwall

This proved to be Sami Hyypia’s final home game in charge of Brighton as the Finnish former Liverpool player resigned just 10 days later. Responsible for his last defeat was Lee Gregory who fired home after Magaye Gueye’s scuffed shot fortuitously ended up at his feet. The Seagulls did attempt to conjure up a response but had limited opportunities against a well marshalled Lions defence.

1st March 2014: Millwall 0 – 1 Brighton & Hove Albion

A controversial penalty given against Danny Shittu for a foul on Jesse Lingard was enough to settle this match at The Den. There seemed to be minimal contact between the pair but this was of no concern to David Lopez who duly dispatched the resulting spot kick. Millwall came close to a goal of their own but Jermaine Easter’s strike was a couple of inches too high as it rattled the bar.

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