Southampton v Derby County Betting Tips & Predictions – Wednesday 16th January 2019

Derby have already toppled Premier League opposition in this season's League Cup and this Wednesday they have the chance to do the same in England's other cup competition. The Rams did not quite have the beating of Southampton at the first attempt but St Mary's is not the most difficult places to travel to for an FA Cup replay.

If the two clubs needed any extra motivation for this match then the fourth round draw may have provided it. Whoever can triumph on Wednesday night will travel to Accrington Stanley in the next stage of the competition. Although there is always a danger of an upset, the League Two outfit are one of the lowest ranked clubs left in the competition.

Top Tips

Derby to Qualify @ 12/5

Under 2.5 Goals @ 19/20

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Southampton News: Hasenhuttl seeks new striker as Gabbiadini departs

Southampton Player Maya Yoshida
Steve Hogg, flickr

Sampdoria have agreed a £10.8m deal to bring Manolo Gabbiadini to back to Serie A. It always looked like the Italian would be offloaded having played just 15 minutes of football since Southampton switched managers. Hasenhuttl sees his exit as being the best solution for all parties as the Saints boss believes he is better suited to Sampdoria’s style of play. The intention is to replace the 27-year-old with another attacking name this transfer window so there could well be a new face at St Mary’s soon.

Absences piling up for Saints

It is looking like Hasenhuttl will be without at least six players for this match. Maya Yoshida is with the Japanese squad on Asian Cup duty while Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg is out serving yet another suspension. Charlie Austin is also banned as the FA took a dim view of his offensive gesture aimed towards the Manchester City supporters. Danny Ings and Ryan Bertrand are in the treatment room as the pair are struggling with back and hamstring problems respectively. The Saints are also now without one of their back up options in Steven Davis following the completion of his loan move to Rangers.

Derby County News: Thorne sent on loan

Entrance to Derby County's Pride Park

George Thorne played 22 times for Derby last season but Frank Lampard hasn’t once selected the midfielder since taking charge at the club. With no prospect of getting any more minutes for the remainder of the season, the 26-year-old secured a loan deal to promotion-chasing Luton in League One. The switch does not necessarily signal the end for Thorne at Derby however. Upon his departure his manager said the door would remain open for him and added it’s the perfect opportunity for the ex-West Brom man to regain his full fitness.

Analysis: Both managers happy to rotate

The league is the priority for both Hasenhuttl and Lampard given their clubs’ respective positions. Southampton are well in the Premier League relegation dogfight while Derby have genuine hope of securing promotion to the English top-flight. A combined 12 changes were made when the two clubs met at Pride Park and there is little reason not to expect a similar amount of rotation for Wednesday night’s re-match.

Attack a real issue for Southampton

Southampton have found the net in their last five matches at St Mary's but their attacking situation has recently turned rather bleak. Austin, Ings and Michael Obafemi are all ruled out while Gabbiadini is bound for Italy. This leaves the Saints with Shane Long as their only recognised striker for this match. The Irishman has collected more yellow cards than goals the past two years and is a player no longer Premier League quality. A sheer lack of decent options going forwards should see this game produce few goals with under 2.5 offering appeal at a 19/20 price.

Derby can capitalize on Saints absences

Hasenhuttl doesn't have the option of brining in fresh legs without a serious downgrade in quality. There will be some compromise in the middle but one that puts the Saints in serious danger of being knocked out of the competition. For a side that has won just one home game all season and are still in the process of adapting to a new manager, they are being seriously over-priced by the bookies. Derby knocked Manchester United out of the League Cup away from home and handed Chelsea a real scare during the following round. Not a side who fear a challenge, the Championship outfit can be backed at an exceptional price of 12/5 to book their place in the fourth round.

Recent Matches

There's rarely been too much to separate these two sides whenever they've met in more recent clashes. Six of their last 11 matches have ended all square and even their two-legged play-off match in 2007 finished 4-4 on aggregate.

5th January 2019: Derby County 2 – 2 Southampton

Two goals from Nathan Redmond proved not enough to send the Saints into the fourth round of the FA Cup. After seeing the visitors extend their advantage, Rams boss Lampard made some changes which helped get his side back on level terms. The introduction of David Nugent proved pivotal even though the striker did not get on the scoresheet himself. Both sides had huge chances to win the tie late on but both Jack Marriott and Mohamed Elyounoussi fluffed their lines.

18th February 2012: Southampton 4 – 0 Derby County

An emphatic victory saw Southampton regain top spot at the top of the Championship at the expense of West Ham. Jos Hooiveld put his side head and the Dutchman’s half-time replacement, Aaron Martin, netted another. The Saints third saw Adam Lallana finish off a slick passage of play as the Derby resistance began to collapse. Adding to their pain was Japanese striker Tadanari Lee who made it four with what would end up being his only goal for the club.

15th October 2011: Derby County 1 – 1 Southampton

After taking the lead just three minutes in, it was very much a case of backs to the wall for Derby. The Championship leaders pushed forward in search of an equaliser but were denied on several occasions by Frank Fielding in the opposing goalmouth. When Southampton did manage to find a way past the goalkeeper, Steve Davies was on hand to clear off the line. The host's pressure was eventually rewarded though when Ricky Lambert notched his 11th goal of the season.

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