Andalucía Valderrama Masters Betting Tips & Predictions – Thursday 27th June 2019

For many European golf fans this is the best part of the season. The European Tour is in the middle of a string of high class events on European soil and following an exciting renewal of the BMW International Open in Germany it’s time for the tour to head to Spain for the Andalucia Masters.

Although the tournament has moved to this plum part of the schedule it has not switched venues. It’s being held once again at the stunning Valderrama Golf Club in Sotogrande. This tight, tricky course is likely to provide another thrilling finish in which Joost Luiten should be heavily involved. He has played some excellent golf at Valderrama and can put together a concerted challenge this week.

Top Tips

Joost Luiten @ 20/1

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

Course Info

Valderrama is an incredibly storied course and has been referred to as Europe’s Augusta. It may bare a resemblance to the Masters hosts but it takes a different style of golf to triumph around Valderrama.

At a touch over 7,000 yards, this is a relatively short course for a par 71. Big hitters will find their advantage further curtailed by the narrow fairways which are framed by overhanging cork trees in many places. It is vital to find the right parts of the fairways off the tee but that’s only a fraction of the challenge. The greens are notoriously small and feature a number of hugely punishing run off areas creating one of the toughest challenges of short game on the European Tour.

CourseLocationLengthPrize Money
Valderrama Golf Club Sotogrande, Spain 7,001 Yards €3,000,000

Recent Winners

The Andalucia Masters is hosted by Sergio Garcia for the benefit of his charitable foundation. He loves the chance to raise some money for causes close to his heart, he’s certainly earned enough of it at Valderrama over the years. The Spaniard is going in search of his fourth straight tournament win this week although there was a considerable break between his first (in 2011) and second (2017) during which the tournament did not run. Graeme McDowell is the only other winner of this tournament which lends more weight to the thinking that Valderrama suits excellent ball strikers and those who can cope with a tough test. That was also the case when Andrew Johnston won the Open de España at Valderrama in 2016.

YearWinnerTo ParWinning Margin
2018 Sergio Garcia -12 4 Strokes
2017 Sergio Garcia -12 1 Stroke
2011 Sergio Garcia -6 1 Stroke
2010 Graeme McDowell -3 2 Strokes

Analysis: Very Tough Week in Prospect

Hitting greens in regulation is the number one challenge at Valderrama and as such tends to separate those contending for the title from the rest. That challenge gets a lot easier when the course is softened up by some rain but there is nothing but sun and temperatures in the high 20s forecast for this week. With the course baking out, only those who hit approach shots of the highest quality from the fairway will have any chance of getting close to 70% of greens in regulation so this is shaping up to be a real slog. We could well see a score of little better than par getting the job done.

Kaymer Can Go Low Enough

Sergio Garcia is the unsurprising favourite for the Andalucia Masters with most bookies but some have him at the same price as fellow countryman Jon Rahm. The watching Spanish galleries could well be treated to another home win this week as both Garcia and Rahm have good chances of victory. It’s tough to get too excited about either of them at a general price of 13/2 though so this is a week in which some more speculative each way bets look the way to go.

Joost Luiten is the first player to consider in that regard. The Dutchman has a very good record at Valderrama with three top five finishes and just one missed cut from his five appearances at the track.

Luiten’s form has been a little patchy since his return from a wrist injury but he has picked up good results at courses which suit his game and ranks second for strokes gained from tee to green on the European Tour this season. Valderrama is one of those suitable courses and his calm demeanour will be of considerable benefit should conditions be particularly tough this week so back Luiten each way at 20/1 with bet365.

Can Johnston Go In Again?

A lot has changed for Andrew Johnston since his win at Valderrama in 2016. Beef has tried his luck on the PGA Tour, got engaged and recently announced that his fiancée is pregnant with his first child. That’s an exciting but daunting time in the life of any first time father and you can be sure that Johnston will be feeling a little extra pressure to earn some money for the nappy fund.

After some time off to work on his game and fitness, Beef is ready to embark on a run of potentially lucrative tournaments. The results of working with a new coach and caddie have already started to show and he looks dangerous at 55/1 with Betfair.

The final player to consider backing each way this week is Soren Kjeldsen. The Dane has had his struggles on tour this season but, like Luiten, has generally played well on courses that suit his very deliberate style. Valderrama is a venue that has been very good to Kjeldsen in the past and the positive memories it evokes can spur him on to a challenge at 80/1 with Ladbrokes.

Final Verdict: Joost Luiten Each Way

The two big name Spanish players at the head of the field have every chance of walking away with the Andalucia Masters title but they’ll face a considerable challenge at Valderrama. Joost Luiten is perhaps the man best placed to lead that challenge given his very strong record at the course and his propensity to roll his sleeves up in the midst of a battle so an each way bet looks in order at 20/1 with bet365.

About

The Andalucía Masters is the final visit that the tour makes to Spain. The tournament is fairly new in that it's only been running since 2010 and actually missed 4 years between 2012 and 2016, before retuning again in 2017, with great success may we add.

It's hosted at the Valderrama golf course in Sotogrande, Spain. The course is probably the highlight of the whole tournament to be honest and is often regarded as one of the toughest in Europe. Winning scores rarely get into double figures and the majority of the field will finish over par by the end. It's not a long course either, measured at just under 7,000 yards, but it's extremely tight and the rough is synonymously long and sticky to get out of.

It's the same course that the Volvo Masters used to be played at before that got stopped in 2008. Whilst the Andalucía Masters isn't a direct replacement for that, it is widely agreed that it has taken its place in the set up for the European Tour.

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