The PGA Tour got back underway with a thrilling renewal of the Tournament of Champions. Justin Thomas just about held on to win via a playoff on a topsy-turvy, wind-affected final day. He remains in Hawaii alongside many of last week’s field to compete in the Sony Open in Hawaii. Held at Waialae Country Club, this is the first full field event of 2020 and features a combination of big name PGA Tour stars and hungry players fighting for their share of the glory.
Kevin Kisner and Abraham Ancer are each very eager for success even though they’re at different stages of their careers. Both have the game required to go well at Waialae but it’s Kisner who has the experience and the previous strong results so he looks a particularly good each way bet at 50/1 with Betfred.
Top Tips
Kevin Kisner @ 50/1
{module Tips Button}
Course Info
The wind was the big story of the closing round at Kapalua last week and similarly tough conditions are expected during the business end of the Sony Open. As the below list of winning scores shows, the difficulty of Waialae Country Club depends significantly on the strength of the coastal winds. Damp conditions should allow the field to score fairly well on Thursday and Friday but the wind is forecasted to pick up significantly on the weekend which could cause carnage. The best shot makers and those with plenty of experience of going low in the wind having an advantage over the rest of the field.
Waialae is a very different test of golf compared to Kapalua. The course is relatively flat so the par 70 layout plays fairly close to its official yardage of 7,044. The challenge is also front loaded compared with Waialae. Hitting the narrow fairways off the tee is very difficult but the greens are significantly fewer slopes and therefore easier to read. This is a strategic test which forces players even of this standard to accept par on some holes.
| Course | Location | Length | Prize Money |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waialae Country Club | Honolulu, Hawaii | 7,044 Yards | $6,700,000 |
Recent Winners
The Sony Open in Hawaii has provided a combination of shocks and highly predictable winners in recent years. Whilst few punters were on board with Patton Kizzire and Fabian Gomez, who went off at 80/1 and 100/1 respectively, it was a different story for Matt Kuchar, Justin Thomas and Jimmy Walker who were all well backed pre-tournament. Those three had all competed in the Tournament of Champions the week before their Sony Open success with Thomas and Walker completing a double of tournament wins on Hawaii. The general record of those who have a week’s head start on the competition in terms of competitive golf in Hawaii is impressive.
| Year | Winner | To Par | Winning Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Matt Kuchar | -22 | 4 Strokes |
| 2018 | Patton Kizzire | -17 | Playoff |
| 2017 | Justin Thomas | -27 | 7 Strokes |
| 2016 | Fabian Gomez | -20 | Playoff |
| 2015 | Jimmy Walker | -23 | 9 Strokes |
Analysis: Grinders Can Come to the Fore
The Sony Open in Hawaii tends to produce a fairly low scoring average. It’s unlikely that the scoring average will be over par during this year’s tournament due to the damp conditions on the first couple of days removing some of Waialae Country Club’s teeth. It will be a totally different situation at the weekend though where we will likely see the chances of some leading contenders blown away with the forecasted trade winds.
It will take a combination of mental fortitude and a rock solid technique to hang tough when things are at their most challenging on Saturday and Sunday. Players who are able to repeatedly fashion shots into the greens either fighting against or going with the green will have an advantage as will those with the short game skills to get up and down for par when greens are inevitably missed. Finally, it makes sense to side with the best putters as it is possible to gain strokes on the field once safely aboard the putting surfaces.
Kisner can Prove Himself Again
It is no surprise at all to see Justin Thomas (5/1) and Patrick Reed (12/1) right at the top of the betting for the Sony Open in Hawaii. They both played some very good golf at times last week and had to hang tough at others. Clearly, they each have a real chance of winning on Honolulu but it’s pushing it considerably to say that either man represents betting value.
Kevin Kisner may prove to be a better value option at 50/1 with Betfred. Kisner is the sort of golfer who seems to be constantly proving himself. He’s never been the flashiest golfer and is not blessed with above average power (relative to the PGA Tour at least) but there is no doubting his class.
The 35 year old is one of the best ball strikers in the game and has little trouble putting the ball in play off the tee even on tough holes in tricky conditions. Those skills have served him well at the Sony Open in Hawaii before, as he has two previous top five finishes to his name there.
Having missed out on the Presidents Cup, Kisner finds himself having to prove himself all over again with the 2020 Ryder Cup on the horizon. He can do his chances of making it to Whistling Straits the power of good with a win this week even if an each way bet is the safest betting play.
Ancer Another for Each Way Money
One of the most important indicators for success at the Sony Open is previous course form. It is very rare for a player to win this tournament on debut, with most requiring a couple of years under their belts before they truly understand how Waialae plays. Abraham Ancer certainly found the going tough on his first two attempts at this tournament but is ready to make the most of that experience.
The 28 year old Mexican has made waves on the PGA Tour over the last couple of years without being able to get over the line yet. He has the required skill to repeatedly hit fairways and greens but will need to be at his best on the greens to gain strokes on the field with his putting. His participation in the Presidents Cup should there’s only limited rust to shake off following the Christmas break so back Ancer each way at 50/1 with Ladbrokes.
Final Verdict: Kevin Kisner to Win
In a tournament which has provided plenty of long odds winners in the past, Kevin Kisner and Abraham Ancer look to have realistic chances of upsetting the favourites. Of the two, preference goes to Kisner with his extra experience at his track suggesting that his odds of 50/1 with Betfred are very generous.