Hong Kong Open Betting Tips & Predictions – Thursday 22nd November 2018: Past Winners, Stats & History

It’s just a matter of days since Francesco Molinari was crowned the winner of the 2018 Race to Dubai and yet the new European Tour season is already set to begin. The Hong Kong Open is playing the role of the curtain opener and some big names from world golf have made the trip for what should be a cracking renewal.

Six of the world’s top 50 players are in attendance at Fanling this week. Those big names dominate the top of the betting and whilst there has been the odd shock winner of the Hong Kong Open since it became part of the European Tour, we’ve seen plenty of shorter priced options go in. You can make a case for any of Patrick Reed, Tommy Fleetwood or Sergio Garcia but it’s Rafael Cabrera Bello who makes the most appeal at a generous price of 10/1 with Betfred.

Course Info

The Hong Kong Open has a rich history and has been part of the European Tour since 2001. In that time it has always been co-sanctioned with the Asian Tour and the event has always been played at Hong Kong Golf Club in Fanling, in the New Territories. This private golf club was opened way back in 1889 and actually includes three different courses.

The Hong Kong Open is held on a composite of eight holes from the New Course and 10 from the Eden Course. That creates a par 70 layout measuring a little over 6,700 yards which can be described in one word – tricky. The fairways are narrow and tree lined, there is water in play on many holes and there are doglegs to the left and right. Keeping the ball in play is the order of the day whilst those players who hit the best approach shots and are able to scramble for par when they miss the greens will find themselves towards the top of the leaderboard.

Recent Winners

The first thing to note from the list of recent winners isn’t who won but just how close the last five tournaments have been. In fact, you have to go back to Rory McIlroy’s win in 2011 for the last time that a player won by more than a single stroke. That paints a picture of a course at which birdie chances are relatively rare but Hong Kong Golf Club is also a course at which mistakes are seriously punished.

Each of the last five winners claimed the trophy thanks to some excellent approach play. Scott Hend and Justin Rose showed that powerful players should not be written off but they both had to dial back on the tee and could not simply hit driver everywhere. Miguel Angel Jimenez has never been the longest hitter on tour and has always had to make the most of his accuracy and excellent ball striking. The fact that his win in 2013 was his fourth at Fanling shows that type of golf is exactly what’s required here.

Analysis: Consistency is King at Fanling

Every teaching golf professional in the world hears the same things from their students day in, day out, “I want to be more consistent”. It’s not just amateur golfers who strive for consistency, the world’s best would love to be able to iron out the mistakes and hit the same, repeatable shot. That skill is especially important at tight tracks like Fanling where consistently high quality iron shots combined with the mental fortitude to keep coming up with the goods is of the utmost importance.

Can Cabrera Bello Hang On This Time?

Rafa Cabrera Bello will be feeling mixed emotions on his return to Hong Kong Golf Club. On the one hand, back to back second place finishes will give him the confidence that his game is very well suited to the composite course. On the other, he has to shake off the mental demons of missing out on a playoff by one shot twice in a row.

On the surface, Cabrera Bello is a very laid back character. He’s a surfer who enjoys the globetrotting life of a professional golfer and is always quick with a smile. There is a steeliness about him though which is quick to emerge if things don’t go his way on the course. If he is to exorcise the demons of the last couple of years at Fanling he’ll need to remain calm after the inevitable mistakes and use that determination he possesses to keep churning out pars and birdies.

Technically, Cabrera Bello’s excellent iron play and rock solid short game should see him contend again. He’ll have no problem hitting fairways and greens and if his putter works well, he could look far too big at 10/1 with Betfred.

Peterson Ready for Another Crack

In the week when Rory McIlroy said he would be focusing on the PGA Tour over the next season it was good for European golf fans to hear Patrick Reed say that he was aiming to win the Race to Dubai this season. Reed is not the only American who will be playing on the European Tour this season. Paul Peterson has embraced the global nature of golf by competing on the European Tour and Asian Tour over the years and he’s claimed wins on both.

The left handed Peterson came very close to winning his second tournament on both tours last season when he finished in a tie for second place at the Hong Kong Open. That he was in the reckoning on Sunday was no real surprise given that Peterson is a player who tends to thrive on courses which demand accuracy. He bases his game around finding the fairway off the tee and then gaining strokes on the field with his approach play. He showed as much with a decent finish at Valderrama last time out and can go even better back at Fanling where he represents a good each way betting option at 80/1 with bet365.

Final Verdict: Rafa Cabrera Bello to Win

There is a general feeling about Rafa Cabrera Bello that he is yet to make the most of his talent. The Spaniard certainly has enough about him to win at any level and at 34 he could have many more than three European Tour titles but winning is never easy. The technical side of his game is more than good enough to see of the challengers in Fanling this week and his chances are better than the 10/1 Betfred are quoting suggest.