Italian Open Betting Tips & Predictions – Thursday 10th October 2019

Jon Rahm displayed his brilliance once again with a commanding win in last week’s Open de España. Italian golf fans will hope for more home success with the Molinari brothers amongst a number of local players teeing it up in the Italian Open.

The Rolex Series event continues its nomadic existence with a fifth venue in 10 years - Olgiata Golf Club. This is a new test for many of those in the field but Matt Fitzpatrick is among the number to have played at Olgiata on the Challenge Tour. He enjoyed the tough test of golf it provided then and can thrive against top level opposition to push for a sixth European Tour win.

Top Tips

Matt Fitzpatrick @ 25/1

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Course Info

Olgiata Golf Club hasn’t been used by the European Tour since 2002 when Ian Poulter won the Italian Open. A fair number of those in this week’s field have previous course experience though as it’s been used multiple times on the Challenge Tour in the intervening years.

Olgiata is an exclusive golf club at which members pay a high premium to ensure it remains in tip top condition. The European Tour stars heading to Rome this week will find immaculate fairways and greens but those who played it some years back will need to get their heads around the changes that were made some years ago as part of Italy’s bid for the 2020 Olympics.

This should be one of the toughest weeks for some time. Olgiata is long for a par 71 at a maximum of 7,523 yards but also demands a certain amount of accuracy off the tee as it’s a classic looking tree-lined layout.

CourseLocationLengthPrize Money
Olgiata Golf Club Rome, Italy 7,523 Yards $7,000,000

Recent Winners

There will be no defending champion at this year’s Italian Open. Thorbjorn Olesen remains suspended by the European Tour pending a court case to ascertain whether or not he is guilty of charges of sexual assault, being drunk on an aircraft and common assault. Indeed, only two of the most recent five winners - Tyrrell Hatton and Francesco Molinari - are in attendance in Rome.

Although the Italian Open regularly shifts venue, recent winning scores have remained similarly low. That is set to change this week as the players will find Olgiata a much tougher proposition, subject of course to the way the European Tour decide to set the course up.

YearWinnerCourseTo ParWinning Margin
2018 Thorbjorn Olesen Gardagolf Country Club -22 1 Stroke
2017 Tyrrell Hatton Golf Club Milano -21 1 Stroke
2016 Francesco Molinari Golf Club Milano -22 1 Stroke
2015 Rikard Karlberg Golf Club Milano -19 Playoff
2014 Hennie Otto Circolo Golf Torino -20 2 Strokes

Analysis: Par Four Scoring Could be Key

Olgiata is a different beast from the championship tees compared to those that the members play off. The changes to the course were largely focused on adding length, especially to the par fours which look particularly demanding. Those towards the top of the leaderboard on Sunday will have avoided big scores on the punishing par fours thanks to solid play from tee to green and the odd card-saving putt. The players must avoid bogeys on the par threes and try to maximise scoring on the three par fives but it’s performance on the most demanding par fours which will likely be where the 2019 Italian Open is won and lost.

Fitzpatrick Can Land a Big Win

It’s easy to forget that Matt Fitzpatrick is just 25. The Englishman seems to have been around on the European tour for longer than that. Fitzpatrick already has five wins to his name, including the season-ending DP World Tour Championship. He’s shown that he has the game and the mentality to win the biggest tournaments on the European Tour and has a real chance to further improve his CV this week in Rome.

In order for Fitzpatrick to get into contention on Sunday he’ll need all aspects of his game to be in fine working order. Given that he ranks fifth for strokes gained in total on the European Tour he appears very much up to the challenge. Speaking of challenge, Fitzpatrick is one of those in the field who played at Olgiata on the Challenge Tour so he’ll know what to expect at Rome. Combine that knowledge with the experience of his caddy, Billy Foster, and you just know Fitzpatrick will have a rock solid game plan in Rome.

It’s a case of putting the plan into action for Fitzpatrick. His solid performances of late and the way that the course should play into his strengths suggest he’ll be do that and be a major contender and that the odds of 25/1 that Betfred are quoting are too big to ignore.

Local Knowledge to Help Pavan

Nobody in the field for the 2019 Italian Open has more course knowledge than Andrea Pavan. The Italian learned how to play golf at Olgiata and plays the course regularly as he remains a member. Playing a top level competition on your home course doesn’t always end up well as there’s an extra amount of pressure and the course is set up very differently but Pavan won at Olgiata on the Challenge Tour and may just do the same in the big leagues.

It’s taken Pavan longer than he’d have liked to make a real impact on the European Tour but the 30-year-old now feels at home amongst this level of competition. His medium to long term form is impressive and he has a game that is tailor made for this course so make sure to add Pavan to your staking plan at 33/1 with Ladbrokes.

Final Verdict: Matt Fitzpatrick to Win

Andrea Pavan would be a very popular winner of this year’s Italian Open and his chances should be respected at 33/1 with Ladbrokes. It’s Matt Fitzpatrick who looks the most likely winner though. He has played a lot of good golf at this part of the season before and can set up a tilt at the Race to Dubai playoffs with a big Rolex Series win at 25/1 with Betfred.

About

The Italian Open is one of the most prestigious and oldest events on the European Tour. It's been running since 1925 and in that time has managed to cement itself as part of the Rolex Series. The Rolex Series is a group of fixtures on the Tour's calendar that offer a larger number of ranking points as well as prize money. The Italian Open has been one of the many beneficiaries of that, increasing prizemoney from $3million to that of $7million.

The course generally alternates every few years and has been hosted at over 20 different golf courses across Italy. The tournament often picks cities out to host and then from there they are able to narrow this down to the best courses within that city. For 2019, the tournament will be held in Rome, hosted by the Olgiata Golf Club, thought to be one of the best courses in the country.

Since the Italian Open was regarded as a fully sanctioned European Tour event in 1971 only two Italians have won the tournament, in Baldovino Dassu in 1976 and Francesco Molinari in 2006 and 2016.

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