Mayakoba Golf Classic Betting Tips & Predictions – Thursday 8th November 2018

The Mayakoba Golf Classic used to be one of the PGA Tour’s alternative events. These tournaments are held at the same time as a major or WGC as a chance for some of the PGA Tour’s lesser lights to earn their crust and to build their reputations. That has changed in recent years now as the Mayakoba Golf Classic has switched from February to November and is a fully fledged PGA Tour event.

There’s a place at the Masters, 500 FedEx Cup points and a prize fund of $7.2 million to play for at El Camaleon Golf Club in Mexico. There are several big name stars in the field but it’s Beau Hossler who represents the most appealing option in the betting at 40/1 with Ladbrokes.

Top Tips

Beau Hossler @ 40/1

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Course Info

El Camaleon Golf Club was designed by Greg Norman. At a shade under 7,000 yards this is one of the shortest tracks on the PGA Tour. You might think that players of this calibre would be able to eat up such a short course but accuracy is a challenge at El Camaleon thanks to the juicy rough and jungle-like vegetation which guards the fairways.

The greens at El Camaleon are receptive so anybody finding the fairway off the tee should be able to set up scoring chances. However, the ability to score is always at the mercy of the weather. With stormy conditions forecast for the earlier part of the tournament it could be a case of hanging on until it clears up at the weekend and the birdies start to flow with regularity.

CourseLocationLengthPrize Money
El Camaleon Golf Club Playa del Carmen, Mexico 6,987 Yards $7,200,000

Recent Winners

The first thing to note about the five recent winners of the Mayakoba Golf Classic is their odds. Harris English was the shortest priced winner at 25/1 with Pat Perez the biggest at 125/1. The quality of the field assembled at El Camaleon seems to improve every year but this has tended to be an event that provides winners at bigger odds. It’s also worth noting that all five in the list below hit around 75% of greens in regulation while Hoffman is the only man not to rank fourth or better for putts per green in regulation.

YearWinnerTo ParWinning Margin
2017 Patton Kizzire -19 1 Stroke
2016 Pat Perez -21 2 Strokes
2015 Graeme McDowell -18 Playoff
2014 Charley Hoffman -17 1 Stroke
2013 Harris English -21 4 Strokes

Analysis: Who Will Hold Their Nerve in a Thrilling Finish?

The combination of perfect playing conditions, the potential for a tight leaderboard and a course that yields a high number of birdies should provide a thrilling finish to the 2018 Mayakoba Golf Classic. With birdies galore, Sunday’s winner will need the mentality to keep setting up and taking chances whilst their putter simply must be hot.

Hossler Ready for Maiden PGA Tour win

As we’ve seen above, this is a tournament which can reward punters who take a bit of a risk on players at bigger odds. Rickie Fowler is probably the most likely winner of the tournament but he’s way too short at 8/1. The 40/1 that Ladbrokes are quoting on Beau Hossler is much more like it.

The 23-year-old has shown in recent months that he is very much up to the task of competing with the PGA Tour’s best. Hossler secured yet another good result in Las Vegas last weekend and is feeling good about his game. Although he only rarely threatened to win last season, Hossler ranked fourth on tour for strokes gained putting.

He’ll need his best stuff from a shot making perspective but providing he can hang tough and remain in touch when conditions are challenging, Hossler has the fire power to come flying through the leaderboard at the weekend. That said, an each way bet is safer than simply backing Hossler to win given that he’s yet to get over the line at this level.

Ryder Overpriced for Another Good Week

Sam Ryder’s excellent 2018 had another highlight last week when he finished third at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Classic. That result was yet more validation for the idea that the 28-year-old is ready to challenge for multiple PGA Tour titles, the first of which could well come on Sunday in Mexico.

Ryder’s positive results last season came from the fact that he was one of the very best ball strikers on the PGA Tour. He’ll need to marry his ever reliable iron play with some confident putting but if it all comes together, Ryder will look a steal at 50/1 with bet365.

Spaun Another Ball Striker to Support

Like Ryder, J.J. Spaun heads to Mexico on the back of an impressive week in Las Vegas. His approach play into the greens was better than anybody else which is very good news for those who have already snapped him up at 66/1 with BetVictor for the Mayakoba Golf Classic. Spaun played some very good golf when finishing 14th in this tournament 12 months ago and has come on leaps and bounds since. The 28-year-old may not claim his breakthrough PGA Tour win just yet but he’s more than capable of claiming a place and returning a healthy profit.

Final Verdict: Beau Hossle each way

The strength in depth on the PGA Tour means there are any number of players capable of winning the Mayakoba Golf Classic. Beau Hossler, Sam Ryder and J.J. Spaun represent perhaps the best bets. Of those three, it’s Hossler who looks most ready to stand up and secure the birdies required to get over the line on Sunday.

About

The Mayokoba Classic, formerly the OHL Classic, has been running since 2007, so is one of the younger tour events. It was the first PGA Tour event to be played in Mexico, with the Playa del Carmen Golf Club hosting the event since its infancy.

For the first few years the tournament actually played a role as an alternative event on tour, due to it clashing with the WGC Match Play. As a result, on half FedEx Cup points were awarded and included a significantly decreased prize pool of just $3.5million, almost half what the tournament averages were on the PGA Tour.

But, the success of the event and the drive to increase exposure within Mexico meant that the PGA Tour turned the OHL Classic into a full PGA Tour event in 2013, moving to a mid-November slot and playing part of the run up to the holiday break over Christmas. As a result, prize money was almost doubled, FedEx Cup points were reinstated, and winners were granted exemption to the Masters, along with PGA Tour playing rights, if needed.

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