The Northern Trust Betting Tips & Predictions – Thursday 8th August 2019

J. T. Poston was the talk of golf last week as he claimed his maiden PGA Tour title at the Wyndham Championship without dropping a shot across the four days of play. The calibre of player who will congratulate Poston on his win at Liberty National this week will make it clear to him just how big a step up the Northern Trust is from the Wyndham.

This is the first of the three playoff events on the PGA Tour culminating in the award of the FedEx Cup. The best players of the year are in town save for a few absences (Paul Casey is taking a rest) so we’ll have a top class winner this week. Jon Rahm has already proven his class multiple times and can do so again by winning his first playoff event at a tidy each way price.

Top Tips

Jon Rahm @ 16/1

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Course Info

There are some wonderful views on courses used by the PGA Tour and Liberty National has to be up there with the very best. The New Jersey course offers incredible views of Manhattan with the Statue of Liberty looming large. In addition to hosting this tournament twice before, the 7,353 yard, par 71 layout was also the venue for the 2017 Presidents Cup.

It’s remarkable to think that Liberty National sits on what was once a landfill site. Bob Cupp and Tom Kite did a fantastic job fashioning the course but it did need fairly substantial amount of work in 2010. Distance shouldn’t be much of an issue and the majority of the field will be able to at least get close to the par fives in two. There are water hazards to be wary of though, whilst the exposed nature of the course leaves it susceptible to the elements.

Course Location Length Prize Money
Liberty National Golf Club Jersey City, New Jersey 7,353 Yards $9,250,000

Recent Winners

The PGA Tour really gets serious at this time of year. Given the amount of money available in these playoff events and the quality of the field it is little surprise that the list of recent winners includes so many big names. The fact that hosting duties for the Northern Trust are shared on a rota makes it even more likely that one of the best players in the world will win as their game tends to translate well to different challenges.

The one element that the five most recent winners all have in common is that they are excellent shot makers, or at least were when in their pomp at the time of their win. A solid game from tee to green is vital when the host venue is chopping and changing. That should be the case again this year.

Year Winner Course To Par Winning Margin
2018 Bryson DeChambeau Ridgewood -18 4 Strokes
2017 Dustin Johnson Glen Oaks -13 Playoff
2016 Patrick Reed Bethpage Black -9 1 Stroke
2015 Jason Day Plainfield -19 6 Strokes
2014 Hunter Mahan Ridgewood -14 2 Strokes

Analysis: Tee to Green Play the Key

Liberty National is by no means a links course but its coastal setting means that the wind often gets up. That makes scoring all the more tricky on a course that looks straightforward at first but can easily catch out even the best players. The challenge continues on the greens which have some pretty funky slopes and will be difficult to read.

The key to dealing with the specific challenges of Liberty National is top quality play from tee to green. Big hitters have only a slight advantage if any, but those who can keep the ball on the fairway and then maximise their position with consistently high class approach play will flourish.

Rahm to Prove His Big Time Credentials

The PGA Tour playoffs are very much a step up from your regular tour event. The amount of prize money involved is more akin to a major championship whilst the presence of the world’s vert best golfers makes winning one of these events a big ask. Jon Rahm may only be 24 but he has already proven that he is very comfortable playing amongst golf’s elite and has the combination of technique and mental fortitude to win any event.

Rahm has secured wins in big PGA Tour events, on the European Tour’s Rolex Series and has finished 11th or better in all four major championships. He also has a game that is very well suited to Liberty National. The Spaniard’s power will allow him to hit scoring irons into most of the greens whilst his top quality iron play will set up more birdie chances than most.

This is another chance for Rahm to show just how good he is. It’s a chance he could very well take at a very fair 16/1 with Betfred.

Matsuyama to Set Up East Lake Challenge

The lure of the $10 million prize that goes to the FedEx Cup winner is enough to motivate even the most successful golfer. Therefore, every player in the field will be doing all they can to put themselves in as strong a position as possible. For many, that means ensuring themselves a place in the Tour Championship. Only the top 30 in the FedEx Cup ranking will progress to East Lake and Hideki Matsuyama currently finds himself right on the number.

The Japanese superstar will feel as though it’s been a so-so season. That is quite remarkable given that he ranks sixth for strokes gained from tee to green on the PGA Tour. His form is a little patchy with two missed cuts in three events but Matsuyama very much has the right stuff for Liberty National so looks a great each way bet at 55/1 with bet365.

Final Verdict: Jon Rahm to Win

Jon Rahm should be feeling very confident ahead of the Northern Trust. He is right up there with the best players in golf and has the game to win pretty much every tournament he tees it up in. The riches on offer in the FedEx Cup will add further motivation for him to kick off the playoffs in style by winning at Liberty National at 16/1 with Betfred.


The Northern Trust, which is probably more commonly known as the Barclays, is the start of the Tour Championships and with it, the start of a quest for $10million for a select few golfers. The upcoming tour championships offer the most money to play for overall and the biggest purses individually, for the most part.

The Northern Trust includes a field of just 125 players, who are all ranked in terms of money earned throughout the course of the season in the FedEx Cup. But, the tournament hasn't always been part of the Tour Championship and used to be held earlier in the year just as a regular tour event.

The host course for the event changes each year, but are always based around the New Jersey/New York area. Some of the upcoming courses on rotation have included the likes of Ridgewood Country Club, Liberty National Golf Club, Plainfield Country Club and Bethpage State Park.

Only the adjust top 100 players from the FedEx Cup standings will proceed to the following week after the Northern Trust.

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