Open de España Betting Tips & Predictions – Thursday 3rd October 2019

Rory McIlroy caused a stir by complaining about the easy course set up he finds when returning to the European Tour. The timing of his comments was a little off considering he’d just played the Alfred Dunhill Links which is specifically set up to be easy for the amateurs competing but he has a point about a lack of teeth on the European Tour. That is likely to be the case once again at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid, host of this week’s Open de España.

Recent stats are fairly thin on the ground but this will be far from the toughest test that those in the field face this year. Rafael Cabrera-Bello will get a huge amount of support this week alongside fellow Spanish pros in the field. He has been playing some very good golf of late and can outscore the competition to win at a generous price of 11/1.

Top Tips

Rafael Cabrera-Bello @ 11/1

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Course Info

Club de Campo Villa de Madrid is the latest in a string of different courses to host the Open de España. The Javier Arana designed Black Course plays to a maximum yardage of 7,112 yards for a par of 71. Expect the players to find scoring opportunities plentiful even though the course has been beefed up a little thanks to the addition of some new tees.

The course won’t pose the longer hitters a test of driving distance but it’s not exactly a challenge in terms of driving accuracy either. The fairways are generally wide enough to allow the big hitters to open their shoulders. Those who get a good drive away will have a crack at the three par fives in two but they’ll need to be wary of the greens. Runoff areas, bunkers and tricky landing areas put a premium on quality approach play.

CourseLocationLengthPrize Money
Club de Campo Villa de Madrid Madrid, Spain 7,122 Yards €1,500,000

Recent Winners

The first thing to note from the list of recent Open de España winners is that the tournament was held at a different venue each year. The sort of golf that Jon Rahm needed to play to win at Centro Nacional de Golf at -20 was markedly different to that Andrew Johnston had to play when he clung on to win at Valderrama at +1.

With the best will in the world, the Open de España doesn’t attract the strongest field. That does throw up an opportunity for relatively unheralded players to land a European Tour victory but big names such as Rahm, Johnson and Miguel Angel Jimenez have used their class to land this title and we may well see something similar this year.

YearWinnerCourseTo ParWinning Margin
2018 Jon Rahm Centro Nacional de Golf -20 2 Strokes
2016 Andrew Johnston Valderrama +1 1 Stroke
2015 James Morrison Real Club de Golf El Prat -10 4 Strokes
2014 Miguel Angel Jimenez PGA Catalunya -4 Playoff
2013 Raphael Jacquelin Parador de El Saler -5 Playoff

Analysis: The Best Drivers Can Thrive

Club de Campo Villa de Madrid is returning as host of the Open de España for the first time in nearly 20 years. It has been used as the venue for the Madrid Masters three times in the meantime though with those renewals suggesting that driving distance is key. Players who can best capitalise on their position 300+ yards down the fairways with solid approach play and consistent putting will naturally move towards the top of the leaderboard.

Cabrera-Bello the Value from the Big Three

Golf fans in Madrid this week are within their rights to be a little disappointed at the general standard of the field for the 2019 Open de España. The Spanish trio of Jon Rahm, Sergio Garcia and Rafael Cabrera-Bello add some much needed class to proceedings and there is no doubt all three have the qualities required to win.

Rahm is the number five ranked player in the world so can win any tournament he tees it up in but he’s looked a little frustrated with his game in recent weeks so the defending champion is tough to back at a general 3/1. Garcia returned to winning ways with his triumph with his victory in the KLM Open and has taken the last couple of weeks off but it’s Cabrera-Bello who represents the best value of the three at a price of 11/1 with Coral.

Cabrera-Bello ranks 27th for strokes gained off the tee this year, 26th from tee to green and 1st for putts per round. He also has an excellent short game so should be able to save par when he misses the greens which is important given the pace of scoring expected. As with all the Spanish players, this is a big week for Cabrera-Bello and would be a great place for him to secure his fourth European Tour victory.

Shinkwin Back on Track

Callum Shinkwin has bounced back impressively from a very tough time. The young Englishman failed to complete three tournaments in a row due to a combination of missed cuts and withdrawals but kept plugging away and was rewarded with a fifth place finish in the KLM Open. Shinkwin the played well again last week to finish joint 10th in the Alfred Dunhill Links to move him comfortably within the top 100 of the Race to Dubai rankings.

The goal for Shinkwin for the remainder of the European Tour season is to make it all the way through to the DP World Tour Championship. Another strong performance this week would help no end. He is well placed for just that given that he tops the strokes gained stats off the tee on the European Tour. Missing the fairways shouldn’t be too much of a problem in Madrid whilst he can capitalise on the par fives so make sure to back Shinkwin each way at 50/1 with bet365.

Final Verdict: Rafael Cabrera Bello to Win

Rafael Cabrera-Bello will face some tough opposition from his fellow Spanish pros this week. He has the game required to play really well in Madrid though and even has a top 10 finish to his name at this course so looks decent value at 11/1 with Coral. The same can be said of Callum Shinkwin at 50/1 with bet365 although he is more of an each way play whereas Cabrera-Bello really should be aiming to win the tournament.

About

The Spanish Open sees the European Tour land back on Iberian soil as it enters its final stages. The tournament is now held in October after previously being hosted in April and takes advantage of the pleasant Spanish climate within Madrid, where Club de Campo Villa de Madrid is located.

The Spanish Open is one of two events that are held in the country each year and fully sanctioned by the European Tour. It was first held in 1912, making it one of the oldest, but it's importance is more significant than that in that it was one of the first tournaments on the tour since their inception in 1972. It's been running strongly since then and is a highly popular spot for many of the players as travelling time is often massively reduced compared to many of the events that have preceded this.

Some of the former champions are real who's who of golf, including the likes of Arnold Palmer, Seve Ballesteros, Behnard Langer, Sir Nick Faldo and more recently, young Spanish superstar, John Rahm, who won his hometown tournament in 2018 for the first time. The player with the most wins is actually that of Angel de la Torre, with 5 in total, coming between 1916 and 1925.

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