AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips & Predictions – Thursday 7th February 2019

Pro-am golf has a rich history on the PGA Tour. The Wednesday before every tournament sees the competing professionals team up with a group of amateurs in a practice round but it very much goes up a level in this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Some of the best golfers in the world will partner up with a host of big names from sport, entertainment and business in an event that was first hosted at the Bing Crosby National Pro-Amateur in 1937.

Matt Fitzpatrick is getting his first taste of this tournament this week but he will not be cowed on debut. He has all the tools required to compete with the best of the best on the Carmel Bay coast and is therefore very tempting at odds of 50/1 with Betfair.

Top Tips

Matt Fitzpatrick @ 50/1

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Course Info

The number of competitors taking part this week mandates the use of three different host courses. Each pairing will play one round each at Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and the Shore Course at Monterey Peninsula before those who make the cut go on to play one more round at the world famous Pebble Beach.

The calibre of Pebble Beach is such that it has hosted multiple major championships but it won’t be set up to play anywhere near as tough as when hosting the US Open later on this year. It’s actually fairly scorable at Pebble Beach with the rough cut back and some friendly pin positions but birdies are much harder to come by when the wind blows. Of the three, Monterey Peninsula is where the players will look to shoot a low round but, despite being under 7,000 yards, they all demand absolute concentration and accurate play off the tees and into the greens.

CourseLocationLengthPrize Money
Pebble Beach Carmel Bay,
California
6,816 Yards $7,600,000
Spyglass Hill 6,960 Yards
Monterey Peninsula 6,985 Yards

Recent Winners

The Pebble Beach Pro-Am has thrown up some serious betting shocks over the years. Whilst some of the world’s best such as Jordan Spieth and Brandt Snedeker have capitalised on good spells of form to capture the title we’ve seen Ted Potter Jr. (500/1) and Vaughan Taylor (300/1) land from way down in the betting.

No matter their starting price, all of the most recent winners brought their best ball striking to Carmel Bay. It is imperative to hit a high percentage of greens in regulation, especially at Pebble Beach where the putting surfaces are notoriously small. Ted Potter Jr spoke of trying to hit small targets and it’s that sort of approach which pays dividends compared to bombing it off the tee.

YearWinnerTo ParWinning Margin
2018 Ted Potter Jr. -17 3 Strokes
2017 Jordan Spieth -19 4 Strokes
2016 Vaughan Taylor -17 1 Stroke
2015 Brandt Snedeker -22 3 Strokes
2014 Jimmy Walker -11 1 Stroke

Analysis: Chace Outsiders to Try and Strike Lucky

It’s a case of big names everywhere you look at the top of the betting for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Dustin Johnson is the bookies’ favourite after winning in Saudi Arabia whilst Jason Day and Tommy Fleetwood are both being well backed. Backing longer shots has worked well in the past at Pebble Beach and that’s an approach which may just pay dividends again. There are several top quality ball strikers with the game to challenge this week so let’s hope for some nice each way payouts at least.

Fitzpatrick a Good Fit on Tournament Debut

Matt Fitzpatrick has been thinking about Pebble Beach a lot in recent months. The Englishman has been planning his attack for the 2019 US Open and last summer he eagerly followed his brother’s attempts to win the US Amateur at Pebble Beach. Alex Fitzpatrick was unable to do as Matt did in 2013 and win the US Amateur as he lost out at the quarter final stage. Matt can give the Fitzpatrick family a win to celebrate at Pebble Beach this week though.

It’s always tough for players to play well on debut at a PGA Tour event but Fitzpatrick has all the tools to go well in Carmel Bay. He’s been playing some good stuff lately and ranks well in terms of driving accuracy, greens hit in regulation and putting average. Those are all key metrics to consider for a tilt at this title so Fitzpatrick should be considered a real threat at 50/1 with Betfair.

Snedeker Always a Threat on Poa Annua

Pebble Beach has any number of ways to trip even world class golfers up but many find the Poa Annua grass used on the greens the most tricky aspect of the course to negotiate. The problem with Poa Annua is that it grows at different speeds during the day so the greens at Pebble Beach can often get bumpy pretty fast. This is particularly damaging for players who putt with dead weight whilst the more aggressive putters tend to have the advantage.

Brandt Snedeker is among the best players in the world on Poa Annua greens. He’s used his pop stroke style of putting to help him to two Pebble Beach Pro-Am tournament wins and it’s only a slight loss of form that has him priced as big as 50/1 with bet365. Snedeker’s love for this tournament should see him overcome some average recent results to contend come Sunday at Pebble Beach once again.

McDowell Can Create More Good Memories

Other than playing a part on successful European Ryder Cup teams the undoubted highlight of Graeme McDowell’s career came at Pebble Beach in 2010. That was the year he won the US Open, his only major championship to date. The Northern Irishman has rededicated himself to golf following some fallow years but has found that he is unable to compete with the best on the longer golf courses found week in week out on the PGA Tour. That’s why he must take his chances on these sort of shorter, fiddly tests.

McDowell is making a belated return to competitive action after a prolonged winter break so will be fresh and ready to fire. Whether he can play well enough to challenge remains to be seen but he’s certainly good enough at his best and therefore worthy of each way support at 125/1 with Betfred.

Final Verdict: Matt Fitzpatrick to Win

Winning the Pebble Beach Pro-Am takes a combination of excellent ball striking, confident putting a patience as the pace of play is slower than normal. Matt Fitzpatrick has those qualities in abundance and can prove his world class credentials with a huge win in Carmel Bay.

About

The Pebble Beach Pro-Am has been running since 1937, which makes it one of the oldest tournaments on tour. It's a unique event that is hosted over three courses, including Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill golf Course and Monterey Peninsula Country Club.

It's also, as the name would suggest, a Pro-am, which means that players are paired with amateurs for all four rounds. The professionals will play the strokeplay event keeping their own score, but this is then added to their amateurs score to create a combined total. Notable celebrities over the years have included the likes of Bill Murray, Kevin Costner, Steve Young, Tom Brady, Justin Timberlake, Ray Romano and Carson Daly.

Interestingly, whilst many of the top pros turn out for this tournament, Mark O'Meara is the most successful player with 5 wins to his name, 1 more than that of Sam Snead and Phil Mickelson.

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