Trophee Hassan II Betting Tips & Predictions – Thursday 25 April 2019

The European Tour makes a welcome return this week. The tour’s stalwarts have had to make the choice between taking a break or working on their game over the last month or so but it’s very much back to business this week with the Trophee Hassan II.

This may not be the highest calibre event of the season but the Trophee Hassan II is an important tournament for many players with a strong run of tournaments during the European summer just around the corner. Joost Luiten is especially keen to make up for lost time with the quality tournaments to come now that he is fit and healthy again. Luiten is the bookies’ favourite in Morocco and has every chance of proving his class for another European Tour win at 16/1 with Betfred.

Top Tips

Joost Luiten @ 16/1

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Course Info

The Red Course at Royal Golf Dar Es Salam is not the sort of course you’d want to be playing if your game is even a little bit rusty. That is true even of players who have made it onto the European Tour where it has proven to be one of the toughest challenges in the last three years.

The first thing that stands out about the Red Course is its distance. The par 72 layout measures 7,557 yards from the tips which was enough to make it a challenge for most of its history but things went up a notch in 2017 when James Duncan oversaw changes to make it even tougher. Much of the work that was undertaken was to freshen things up with changes to the greens, bunkering and fairways. The work was carefully considered to ensure the course has retained its original classical feel with tree lined fairways and doglegs whilst the par threes remain the standout holes.

CourseLocationLengthPrize Money
Red Course, Royal Golf Dar Es Salam Rabat, Morocco 7,557 Yards €2,500,000

Recent Winners

Three classy golfers have won the most recent renewals of the Trophee Hassan II to be held at Royal Golf Dar Es Salam. Alexander Levy blew away a rather unfair reputation for being a flat track bully by winning last year’s tournament whilst Edoardo Molinari made a very welcome return to the winner’s circle 12 months previously. Those two ranked second and first respectively for scrambling which marks that out as a very important stat to consider.

Other players to have done well in recent years have also ranked well either for scrambling or for greens in regulation including Wang Jeung-hun. That suggests this is a very tough course at which it is difficult to keep bogeys off the card. It’s not all about play into and around the greens though. The best putters have always had an advantage at Royal Golf Dar Es Salam and that’s a trend which is set to continue following the recent changes to the greens.

YearWinnerCourseTo ParWinning Margin
2018 Alexander Levy Red Course, Royal Golf Dar Es Salam -8 1 Stroke
2017 Edoardo Molinari Red Course, Royal Golf Dar Es Salam -9 Playoff
2016 Wang Jeung-hun Red Course, Royal Golf Dar Es Salam -5 Playoff
2015 Richie Ramsay Golf du Palais Royal -10 1 Stoke
2014 Alejandro Cañizares Golf du Palais Royal -19 5 Strokes

Analysis: Class Can Tell on Abrupt Return to Action

The Trophee Hassan II is a well-regarded European Tour event without being one of the tour’s standout events. However, the field is a little weaker than usual this week. That is likely to be because many players have decided that it’s a little too testing a course for their return to competitive golf. That does throw open the tournament to the very best players in the field though so it may be worth siding with the classiest players over those with strong recent results. Players who have shown an ability to grind out wins when things get tough should also have an edge.

Luiten a Fair Price at the Top of the Market

Six time European Tour winner Joost Luiten is a fairly firm favourite for the Trophee Hassan II. The Dutchman has not that long returned to competition after an injury layoff and it’s the way that he hit the ground running upon his return that’s really exciting punters this week.

Luiten’s last performance actually came on the PGA Tour where he made the cut in the Valero Texas Open. He also finished a creditable 10th in the WGC-Mexico Championship but it’s his consistency on the European Tour that suggests he will have little problem finding his best golf in Morocco.

That leaves the question of whether Luiten’s best is enough to account for this field. In terms of out and out class the answer is a resounding yes and his finishes of third and ninth in his last two trips to Royal Golf Dar Es Salam are also very encouraging. Winning under the pressure of favouritism is never easy but Luiten has the game, experience and quality to do just that at 16/1 with Betfred.

Dubuisson Showing Signs of Real Improvement

When Victor Dubuisson withdrew from the Qatar Masters there was a feeling of “here we go again” amongst European Tour fans. The Frenchman has had a number of aborted attempts to return to the winner’s circle on tour and the worry was that either his head or his body were never going to be quite in the right place. That is just one blot on his copybook recently though with decent finishes in India, Oman and Saudi Arabia showing that his game is returning.

Dubuisson is used to competing in tournaments after a long break so it will not feel strange for him to get going again in Morocco. With wins and strong finishes in some very big events he certainly has the class to win the Trophee Hassan II. The short game magic which he showed in the earlier stages of his career has been lacking this season but Dubuisson’s fourth place finish in this tournament in 2017 shows that he has the required skills to win on his day so he’s worth an each way bet at 30/1 with bet365.

Final Verdict: Joost Luiten to Win

If class is what you’re looking for when it comes to a potential winner of the Trophee Hassan II it is hard to look much past Joost Luiten. The Dutchman is a proven winner on tough golf courses and gets the nod ahead of Victor Dubuisson because of his inner steel at a price of 16/1 that is more than fair.

About

The Trophee Hassan II is the only stop on the European Tour that visits Morocco. The tournament is hosted by His Royal Highness Prince Moulay Rachid and was named after his farther, Hassan II.

It's played at the Royal Golf Dar Es Salam course, which has been hosting the event off and on for a number of years now. The other venue that has hosted the event has been that of the Agadir in 2011.

It's been running since 1971, but it only became a European Tour sanctioned event in 2010, whereas previous o that it was an unofficial money event. The line-ups at the tournament have fluctuated in terms of the top-rated players, but the inclusion of a €2.5million prize pool that is seen today has gone some way to make it a popular destination for the players. Previous winners have included Lee Travino, Colin Montgomerie, Padraig Harrington and Ernie Els.

The course is one of the more challenging that players face throughout the season. Measured at 7,615 yards in 2018, it possess a tough test for players both in length and in difficulty. This is reflected in the scoring, with scores as low as 5-under taking the tournament win previously.

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