Turkish Airlines Open Betting Tips & Preview – Thursday 1st November 2018

The tension at Valderrama a fortnight ago was at times unbearable. Sergio Garcia managed to cope fine with winning the tournament for a third time but that was not where the real drama unfolded. The battle for players to finish inside the top 116 of the Race to Dubai and therefore retain their European Tour card saw some big name players miss out and leave them facing an uncertain future and the dreaded Q School.

It’s back to the top of the Race to Dubai rankings that we turn this week with the Turkish Airlines Open. This is the first of the season ending playoff events and one of the European Tour’s Rolex Series. However, there’s a rather disappointing number of players from the top echelons of the Race to Dubai competing. That provides huge opportunity for less heralded players and, as we’ll see lower down in our preview, Andrea Pavan fits the bill perfectly at 40/1 with Ladbrokes.

Top Tips

Andrea Pavan @ 40/1

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Course Info

The Turkish Airlines Open takes place at Regnum Carya Golf & Spa Resort in Antalya. As you can probably guess from the name, this is a resort course which is more used to hosting holiday makers than European Tour players. That means there are always plenty of birdies made at the layout which isn’t exactly challenging off the tee. At 7,186 yards players of this calibre will have no problem with distance while stats are starting to suggest that missing the fairways isn’t as problematic as first thought given that there are many trees on the layout.

As with any scoreable course, it is vital to hit a very high percentage of greens in regulation. That is not to say that this is just a putting competition but there is no doubt that top class approach play will be the common theme between those at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

CourseLocationLengthPrize Money
Regnum Carya Golf & Spa Resort Antalya, Turkey 7,186 Yards $7,000,000

Recent Winners

Victor Dubuisson was very upset with the news that the Turkish Airlines Open would be leaving the Montgomerie Maxx Royal. The Frenchman won twice around the former host of this tournament which suited his aggressive style of play perfectly. Aggression was also the key for Brooks Koepka in 2015 but it’s taken a slightly more nuanced sort of golf to win at Regnum Carya.

Justin Rose and Thorbjorn Olesen both averaged over 290 yards off the tee but it was their approach play that really set them apart. Rose hit more greens in regulation than anybody else last year while Olesen ranked eighth despite hitting the fairway a little over 50% of the time.

YearWinnerCourseTo ParWinning Margin
2017 Justin Rose Regnum Carya Golf & Spa Resort -18 1 Stroke
2016 Thorbjorn Olesen Regnum Carya Golf & Spa Resort -20 3 Strokes
2015 Victor Dubuisson Montgomerie Maxx Royal -22 1 Stroke
2014 Brooks Koepka Montgomerie Maxx Royal -17 1 Stroke
2013 Victor Dubuisson Montgomerie Maxx Royal -24 2 Strokes

Analysis: Ball Strikers and Streaky Putters to Challenge for a Huge Prize

It tells you a lot about the health of golf at the top level currently that the $7,000,000 prize fund for this highly regarded European Tour event is the same as what a relatively modest field will be competing for at the same time on the PGA Tour. Still, these Rolex Series events can do wonders for the careers of up and coming players. This week it makes sense to focus on players hungry for success as well as those who will regularly hit greens in regulation and gain strokes on the field for their approach play.

Pavan Continues to Improve

Andrea Pavan got his first taste of a World Golf Championship event last week in Shanghai. On the flight from China to Turkey the Italian can reflect proudly on a good week which saw him finish in a tie for 22nd. That he was able to finish under par when so many world class players didn’t showed that Pavan is very much on the up. It was also a credit to his iron play which is from the very top drawer.

Pavan ranks second on the European Tour this season for strokes gained approaching the green. He has plenty of work to do to improve both his driving distance and accuracy but his weakness relative to the competition off the tee shouldn’t hurt him at Regnum Carya. In fact, this could be the perfect course for him to secure a statement win. This summer saw him secure his first European Tour title at the D+D Czech Masters and on the back of some very good form, Pavan could well challenge for a first Rolex Series win so back him each way at big odds of 40/1 with Ladbrokes.

Westwood to Quietly Contend Again

Lee Westwood is one of the elite number of golfers to have reached the number one ranking in the world. He got there thanks to a ruthless determination that saw him make sacrifices and put in a huge amount of work. Things have changed for Westwood as he moves into the autumn of his career but this new, more relaxed approach is working for him.

Westwood has taken a couple of breaks from golf this season. That’s allowed him to recharge his batteries and ensure he’s in good shape when he does compete. A recent run of form that reads T5-MC-T36-T12-T2 shows that something is clearly working. Many of those who have watched Westwood over the years have remarked that he is striking the ball better than ever. Another quality week of iron play could well see Westwood pick up another top 10 finish at 13/5 with Betfred.

Final Verdict: Andrea Pavan Each Way

Pavan has had to fight through various satellite tours just to make it onto the European Tour. At 29 it appears as though his golf game is maturing just as he is as a person resulting in some excellent golf against top class opponents. He still has a lot to prove against the likes of Rose, Tommy Fleetwood and Olesen, who he will meet in Turkey, but there is no reason he cannot contend for what would be the biggest win of his career at a course that suits his style. 40/1 really does look a very good price about the Italian’s chances.

About

The Turkish Airlines Open has been played annually since 2013 and is one of the final three events on the European Tour. It was designed to come in as part of the Rolex Series, which sees huge prize money of $7million for event. As a result, it attracts a huge number of top ranked players in the world and is an event that players are desperate to be a part of as the race to the end of the season starts.

The tournament is hosted by the Montgomerie Maxx Royal and the course measures around 7,200 years in length, making it a pretty mid-sized course for professionals these days. What has been noted about the course is that it's one that can really be got at if the players are on form. Scores of 20-under par and better are not uncommon for the winners of the event.

As it's part of the Rolex Series, it means that players are often keen to attend given it's one of the last few opportunities they will get to play the final tournament of the season; The Tour Championship.

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