DP World Tour Championship Betting Tips & Predictions – Thursday 21st November 2019

The European Tour season draws to a close this week with the final stage of the Race to Dubai. The new king of European golf will be crowned on the 18th hole of the Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates on Sunday. Although all of the European Tour’s big hitters are in town for a crack at the DP World Tour Championship, only five men can win the Race to Dubai, with Bernd Wiesberger in pole position.

Wiesberger is playing well enough to believe he could get the job done with another win but it’s one of his challengers for the Race to Dubai title, Matthew Fitzpatrick, who is the most tempting bet from a world class field at 20/1 with Ladbrokes.

Top Tips

Matthew Fitzpatrick @ 20/1

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

Course Info

The Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates is a fitting venue to cap the Race to Dubai. It’s a layout of supreme quality which is always presented in top class condition. It also has everything required to test the calibre of golfers who make up the elite 50-man field.

The Earth Course is certainly a big enough challenge of distance at 7,677 yards. That provides plenty of scope for some very long par fours whilst two of the par fives are well in excess of 600 yards. Power has always been vital at the Earth Course with several recent winners finishing inside the top five for driving distance on the week of their win.

There is another way of tackling the Earth Course though. Last year’s winner, Danny Willett, ranked 16th for driving distance but third for greens hit in regulation and putted better than anybody else. Matt Fitzpatrick was also right towards the top of the putting stats for his win in 2017 whilst hitting over 80% of fairways and well over three quarters of greens in regulation.

CourseLocationLengthPrize Money
Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates Dubai, UAE 7,677 Yards $8,000,000

Recent Winners

The field contesting the DP World Tour Championship is always made up of the players who have had the best year on the European Tour. It should be no surprise that so many big names have won this tournament but the list of most recent winners is still very impressive. Danny Willett, Rory McIlroy and Henrik Stenson are major champions whilst Jon Rahm and Matthew Fitzpatrick were multiple European Tour winners before getting over the line in Dubai.

YearWinnerTo ParWinning Margin
2018 Danny Willett -18 2 Strokes
2017 Jon Rahm -19 1 Stroke
2016 Matthew Fitzpatrick -17 1 Stroke
2015 Rory McIlroy -21 1 Stroke
2014 Henrik Stenson -16 2 Strokes

Analysis: Bogey Avoidance to be Key Again

Matthew Fitzpatrick didn’t quite turn the DP World Tour Championship on its head with his win in 2017 but he certainly forced some to have a rethink. Fitzpatrick was the first winner of this event for a very long time who could be placed into the bracket of shorter hitters but he’s not the first player to make the most of excellence with long irons and fairway woods to score well at the Earth Course. The likes of Francesco Molinari, Ian Poulter and Andy Sullivan have good tournament records despite being much shorter than most recent winners.

Whatever their specific strengths are, all recent winners of the DP World Tour Championship have taken a strategic approach to the tournament. 16 under par is the worst winning score of this event in five years so the winner needs to fashion a lot of scoring chances whilst keeping bogeys at bay. Indeed, knowing when to settle for par rather than pushing for birdie is vital.

Fitzpatrick Can Strike Again

Rory McIlroy has had an excellent season which could serve as the foundation for more major championship success in 2020. By virtue of fewer European Tour performances than normal and the recent performances of other players, McIlroy is not in the running for the Race to Dubai title however. That won’t stop him from giving his all at Jumeirah Golf Estates where he has played much excellent golf in recent times. The Northern Irishman is the worthy favourite with the bookies at a general 4/1 but may just be a little too short, especially with the absence of regular caddy, Harry Diamond.

The value option in this world class field is Matthew Fitzpatrick at 20/1 with Ladbrokes. The Englishman heads to Dubai with a lot of confidence thanks to some top quality performances in recent months. A run of tournaments that includes second place at the Scandinavian Invitation and the Italian Open has propelled Fitzpatrick to a career high mark of 25th in the world and there is no reason why he cannot climb higher still.

Fitzpatrick will need to be at his very best off the tee to challenge the favourites this week. He has an uncanny knack of keeping up with the bigger hitters on tough, long golf courses though and an excellent tournament record, so has every chance of more success in Dubai where he still has an outside chance of winning the Race to Dubai.

Wiesberger Can Finish the Job in Style

Anybody who comes into the DP World Tour Championship on top of the Race to Dubai rankings would rightly be feeling very good about themselves. Bernd Wiesberger has more reason than most to be proud of what he’s achieved over recent months. It’s not that long ago that injury forced the Austrian off the golf course so the quality of his play of late is especially impressive.

Wiesberger is in a very strong position at the head of the Race to Dubai rankings but will still need to ensure he keeps Tommy Fleetwood, Jon Rahm, Shane Lowry and Matt Fitzpatrick at bay. A runner up spot would be enough to assure Wiesberger a first Race to Dubai win. There is no reason why he cannot achieve that. Wiesberger has a decent record on the Earth Course with a fourth place finish to his name. He is playing the golf of his career so an each way bet is most definitely in order at 30/1 with Coral.

Final Verdict: Matt Fitzpatrick to Win

Matt Fitzpatrick will need his best golf to win the 2019 DP World Tour Championship, of that there is no doubt. The 25-year-old is arguably in the middle of the best elongated period of form of his life though, loves playing in this tournament and is very keen on establishing himself firmly among the golfing elite so he does look very well priced at 20/1 with Ladbrokes.

About

The season finale is that of the World Tour Championships, which are held in at the Jumeriah Golf Estate in Dubai, UAE. The tournament is seen as a celebration to the years golf and has some huge prizes up for grabs.

The tournament has been about since 2009 and was brought in to replace the Order of Merit on the European Tour (essentially the official money list from throughout the season). Whilst prize money has shrunk somewhat since it first started, it's still a highly lucrative tournament to win for all players involved.

The overall prize pool is that of $8millon, which makes it the richest event on tour. The winner will receive a cheque worth just over $1.2milllion, again, one of the biggest on tour. But, on top of that there is a bonus pot of $3.75million to play for, with the winner of the Race to Dubai receiving $1million of that and the rest being distributed to the top 10 on the race.

It's thought that the event brings around $44million in gross economic benefit, such is the magnitude of the tournament. Previous winners have included the likes of Lee Westwood and John Rahm, with Rory McIlroy and Henrick Stenson being the only two multiple winners of the event.

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