Newmarket’s excellent Guineas meeting moves into its second day on the Sunday, with the cracking card being headlined by this top-class contest for the fillies and the second Classic of the season, the 1000 Guineas.
Bestowing both glory on the day, and immense breeding value when looking to the future, this is the early season contest which trainers, owners and jockeys alike all want to win.
Next Race: Sunday, 2nd May 2021
The next race is scheduled to run on 2nd May 2021. The race info, trends and tips shown below will be updated for the next renewal once the final declarations have been made.
Last Run: 7th June 2020
- Winner: Love
- SP: 4/1
- Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
- Jockey: Ryan Moore
1m is the trip for this Group 1 Classic contest, which this year offers £250,000 in guaranteed prize money. The ground at the track is currently described as good to firm, and isn’t expected to change too much come race day.
|Going||Distance||Grade||Prize Money||Runners||EW Terms|
|Good to Firm||1m||Group 1||£250,000||15 Runners||1/5 1-3|
1000 Guineas Betting Tips
Note: The following tips are from 2020. Tips for the next renewal will be added once the final declarations have been made.
Hot on the heels of the 2000 Guineas comes the opening fillies’ Classic of the season, as the top female three year olds line up for the 1000 Guineas. Always one of the most prestigious and informative contests of the season, the race looks to have attracted a top class field once again in 2020.
Aidan O’Brien doesn’t boast quite the dominant record in this one that he does in the 2000 Guineas, but he is still comfortably the most successful trainer on show in this year’s field with five previous successes to his name. That’s as many as the combined total of the other 13 trainers represented!
This hasn’t been the easiest race to call in recent times, with four winners at a double figure price in the past 10 years, headlined by 66/1 shot Billesdon Brook in 2018. There have been just two winning market leaders over this period, handing favourite backers a level stakes loss of 2.3 units. That said, we think the market may have got it right this year and the favourite looks tough to beat.
|Quadrilateral||9/4||114||Roger Charlton||Jason Watson|
|Love||4/1||111||Aidan O'Brien||Ryan Moore|
|Millisle||5/1||115||Jessica Harrington||Oisin Murphy|
|Shimmering||16/1||80||John Gosden||Frankie Dettori|
One trainer yet to taste success in this contest is Wiltshire-based Roger Charlton. Now 70 years old, Charlton may never have had a better chance than he does this year, as it his Frankel filly, Quadrilateral, who currently heads the betting.
A perfect three from three in her juvenile career, she ended her campaign with a narrow win in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile over this very course and distance. She may have only got up to score by a head that day, but looked unlikely to win at all a furlong out, before staying on powerfully up the rail. Having done all her best work late that day, and as one of only two distance winners in the field, she seems likely to be seeing this out strongly.
Another factor in her favour would look to be the fairly quick ground expected at the track. Two of her wins last season did come on good to soft, but she appeared to take a little while to hit full stride on each of those occasions. In contrast, in her sole start on good to firm she fairly skipped over the ground before powering right away for a nine length success. With Jason Watson in the saddle, there’s a lot to like about her chances and she just gets our vote despite strong contenders further down the betting.
As mentioned, it is that man O’Brien who boasts the best record amongst this year’s trainers, and interestingly – from a raft of possible options – he sends just the one to post this year. The filly bidding to join the likes of Winter and Minding on the roll of honour is Moyglare Stud Stakes winner, Love.
Three from seven in her two year old campaign, she is impeccably bred, being by Galileo and out of a Pivotal mare. The form of that win in the Moyglare also looks strong, with the runner up then going one better in the Rockfel Stakes at this track, before filling second spot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Love does however have 1¾l to find with Quadrilateral having finished third to the Charlton runner in the Fillies’ Mile. That really isn’t too much ground to make up though, and hailing from such a powerful operation, she is expected to go well.
Be it in a flat Classic, or a major event at the Cheltenham Festival, Jessica Harrington is a trainer who doesn’t send her horses over from Ireland unless she deems them to have a strong chance of success. As such it would be unwise to underestimate the claims of her sole entry, Millisle, who will have the assistance of the excellent Oisin Murphy in the saddle.
Being by July Cup and Golden Jubilee winner, Starspangledbanner, it was no surprise to see this one competing over sprint trips last season, winning two of her first three starts at the 5f minimum distance. Stepped up to 6f, she came up just short in a Group 3 at Salisbury, before then posting a huge career best to cause a 16/1 shock in the Cheveley Park Stakes at this venue.
Her sire may be all about speed, but there is stamina on the dam’s side of her pedigree, and the manner in which she stayed on powerfully up the near side to win going away that day augurs well for her chances. At 5/1 she may offer a little value and is certainly in with a chance.
Of those available at a double figure price, one of the more interesting contenders is the Lord Lloyd-Webber filly, Shimmering. Going for the John Gosden and Frankie Dettori combination, this twice-raced daughter of Lope de Vega is one of the least exposed runners in the line-up, but is also one of only two runners who already have a win at the distance to her name.
That success came on the all-weather at Newcastle in a race in which she did all her own donkey work from the front to score by a cosy 1¼l. Clearly this demands a huge step up from what was only a Class 5 Novice event, but all runners have to start somewhere and, being the yard’s only option in the race, she must be showing all the right signs at home.
1000 Guineas Winners
|2020||Love||4/1||Aidan O'Brien||Ryan Moore|
|2019||Hermosa||14/1||Aidan O'Brien||Wayne Lordan|
|2018||Billesdon Brook||66/1||Richard Hannon||Sean Levey|
|2017||Winter||9/1||Aidan O’Brien||Wayne Lordan|
|2016||Minding||11/10||Aidan O’Brien||Ryan Moore|
|2015||Legatissimo||13/2||David Wachman||Ryan Moore|
|2014||Miss France||7/1||Andre Fabre||Maxime Guyon|
|2013||Sky Lantern||9/1||Richard Hannon||Richard Hughes|
|2012||Homecoming Queen||25/1||Aidan O'Brien||Ryan Moore|
|2011||Blue Bunting||16/1||Mahmood Al Zarooni||Frankie Dettori|
About the 1000 Guineas: The Fillies Mile Classic
The 1000 Guineas is one of the most historic and storied events in British sport. This Group 1 is the second of the five British Classics of the Flat racing season taking place every year normally in either late April or early May.
As with all of the Classics, the 1000 Guineas is open only to three-year-olds but, like the Oaks, only fillies are allowed to compete. Racing fans revel in the history of the 1000 Guineas but it’s not all about looking back to the past. It still attracts many of the very best fillies in training and the attention of every Flat racing punter.
An Historic Race Worth its Prestigious Place in Racing
The competing trainers and jockeys in the 1000 Guineas feel the weight of over 200 years of history bearing down on them. The very first edition of the race was held in 1814 which makes it just five years younger than the 2000 Guineas which is also still going strong. The race, which was established by the Jockey Club, got its name from the initial prize purse.
Things have changed considerably during those 200 years, most notably the purse which stood at a cool half a million pounds as of 2019 (reduced by half to £250,000 for 2020). One thing that’s remained the same is the distance over which the 1000 Guineas is held. It’s always been run over 1 mile and takes place on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket, HQ of British Flat racing.
It didn’t take long following its establishment for the 1000 Guineas to become one of the most prestigious Flat races in Britain. Its growth was fuelled by the calibre of horses taking part, the race’s lofty position in the spring social scene and the development of the Fillies’ Triple Crown, of which the 1000 Guineas forms one third alongside the Oaks and the St Leger.
Fillies’ Triple Crown a Rare Feat
In total, nine horses have completed the Fillies’ Triple Crown. The most recent of these was Oh So Sharp who achieved the feat in 1985. It would be no great surprise if no other filly goes on to replicate Oh So Sharp. Horse racing is an ever changing sport and there has been a real move towards specialism in more recent years.
Fillies Triple Crown Winners: 1814 – 2019
|1985||Oh So Sharp||Henry Cecil||Sheikh Mohammed|
|1955||Meld||Cecil Boyd-Rochfort||Lady Zia Wernher|
|1942||Sun Chariot||Fred Darling||King George VI|
|1904||Pretty Polly||Peter Gilpin||Eustace Loder|
|1902||Sceptre||Bob Sievier||Bob Sievier|
|1892||La Fleche||John Porter||Maurice de Hirsch|
|1874||Apology||John Osbourne||Reverend John William King|
|1871||Hannah||Joseph Hayhoe||Baron de Rothschild|
|1868||Formosa||Henry Woolcott||William Graham|
It’s very tough for a three-year-old to have the combination of pace and stamina required to win at 1m, 1m4f and 1m6½f and it’s becoming increasingly rare for connections to even enter their leading horses in all three legs of the Triple Crown. Most recent winners of the 1000 Guineas already had winning form over 1m but being bred to get even longer trips is not a necessity.
Long Shots a Possibility
Another reason why completion of the Triple Crown is so difficult is the number of relatively unfancied runners to have won the 1000 Guineas in recent years. Billesdon Brook went in at 66/1 in 2018 which is the biggest starting price of any winner but plenty of others have won at 10/1 or longer in recent times.
Billesdon Brook’s win is an interesting one in that it shows that shock wins may not be the flukes they appear to be on first viewing. She was followed home by some very high class fillies each of whom had plenty of support in the betting and simply made the most of the firm conditions found at Newmarket to utilise her pace. Three-year-old fillies are not a homogenous group and some, like Billesdon Brook, can find significant improvement in a flash, especially with a little luck in running and favourable conditions.
To Race or Not to Race?
The other thing to note about the 2018 race is that Billesdon Brook had actually shown signs of improvement on her seasonal reappearance over 7 furlongs also at Newmarket. Analysts suggested that even more improvement was possible even if few believed she was a Guineas horse.
That run clearly helped but many leading contenders for the race come into it having not had a run since their two-year-old season. Trainers will consider that choice very carefully – do they give their 1000 Guineas prospects a run before the race? Those who do will often take in a contest like the Group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes which Billesdon Brook placed fourth in or one of the recognised trials such as the one that takes place at Leopardstown.
Other trainers rely more heavily on the work their fillies do away from the track and did as two-year-olds. There are several juvenile races to make a note of from the season before but perhaps the most instructive are those held at Newmarket. Previous course form is a trend that’s growing in importance with recent winners coming via either the Cheveley Park Stakes, Oh So Sharp Stakes or the Fillies’ Mile.
It is tough for punters to come to a conclusion about whether to favour horses who have run as three-year-olds or not. The 11 winners from 2009 to 2019 had their last run anywhere between seven and 205 days prior to the 1000 Guineas so it really does come down to what trainers believe is best for the needs of their individual horses.
Due to the enforced break in racing, 2020 winner Love had a gap of 240 days between running in the 2019 bet365 Fillies’ Mile in October and the 1000 Guineas the following June.
A Battle of the Best Trainers
The 1000 Guineas is not a race which any one trainer or ownership group has been able to dominate making things even more difficult for punters. We’ve already seen that there is a great variety in terms of the price and previous form of winners over the last 30 years or so and that variety is present in the list of victorious trainers.
As is par for the course with top class Flat racing, Aidan O’Brien has had great success in the 1000 Guineas. Virginia Waters brought him his first success in 2005 and Love his sixth in 2020 but he has not had the stranglehold on this race that he’s used to in many others. The leading trainer is Robert Robson who had nine winners between 1818 and 1827. It would be no surprise if that record stands forever, although O’Brien will think he has an decent chance of getting up to that sensational mark.
List of Multiple 1000 Guineas Winning Trainers
|Wins||Trainer||First Winner||Last Winner|
|9||Robert Robson||Corinne (1818)||Arab (1827)|
|6||Aidan O’Brien||Virginia Waters (2005)||Love (2020)|
|6||Henry Cecil||One In A Million (1979)||Wince (1999)|
|6||Noel Murless||Queenpot (1948)||Mysterious (1973)|
|5||Matthew Dawson||Cecilia (1873)||Mimi (1891)|
|5||John Day||Mendicant (1846)||Scottish Queen (1869)|
|4||Christiane Head||Ma Biche (1983)||Special Duty (2010)|
|4||Peter Gilpin||Pretty Polly (1904)||Cresta Run (1927)|
|4||George Lambton||Canyon (1916)||Tranquil (1923)|
|4||John Scott||Canezou (1848)||Hurricane (1862)|
|4||John Barham Day||Destiny (1836)||Virago (1854)|
|3||John Dunlop||Quick As Lightning (1980)||Shadayid (1991)|
|3||Harry Wragg||Abermaid (1962)||On The House (1982)|
|3||Cecil Boyd-Rochfort||Brown Betty (1933)||Meld (1955)|
|3||Jack Jarvis||Plack (1924)||Happy Laughter (1953)|
|3||Joseph Lawson||Exhibitionnist (1937)||Dancing Time (1941)|
|3||Alec Taylor Snr||Aphrodite (1851)||Reve D’Or (1887)|
|3||Joseph Dawson||Lady Augusta (1863)||Elizabeth (1880)|
|3||Dixon Boyce||Rhoda (1816)||Young Mouse (1829)|
|2||Barry Hills||Enstone Park (1978)||Ghanaati (2009)|
|2||Michael Stoute||Musical Bliss (1989)||Russia Rhythm (2003)|
|2||Saeed bin Suroor||Cape Verdi (1998)||Kazzia (2002)|
|2||William Richard Hern||Highclere (1974)||Harayir (1995)|
|2||Clive Brittain||Pebbles (1984)||Sayyedati (1993)|
|2||Etienne Pollet||Never Too Late (1960)||Hula Dancer (1963)|
|2||Charles Elsey||Musidora (1949)||Honeylight (1956)|
|2||Walter Earl||Herringbone (1943)||Sun Stream (1945)|
|2||Fred Darling||Four Course (1931)||Sun Chariot (1942)|
|2||William Rose Jarvis||Scuttle (1928)||Godiva (1940)|
|2||Frank Hartigan||Vaucluse (1915)||Roseway (1919)|
|2||Charles Morton||Jest (1913)||Princess Dorrie (1914)|
|2||Willie Waugh||Nun Nicer (1898)||Winkipop (1910)|
|2||Jack Robinson||Cherry Lass (1905)||Witch Elm (1907)|
|2||Tom Jennings Jnr||Hauteur (1883)||Winifreda (1900)|
|2||Richard Marsh||Miss Jummy (1886)||Thais (1896)|
|2||James Ryan||Briar-Root (1888)||Galeottia (1895)|
|2||George Dawson||Semolina (1890)||Amiable (1894)|
|2||John Porter||Farewell (1885)||La Fleche (1892)|
|2||Joseph Hayhoe||Tomato (1864)||Hannah (1871)|
|2||William Butler Jnr||Sorella (1844)||Habena (1855)|
|2||John Kent Jnr||Firebrand (1842)||Pic-Nic (1845)|
|2||Bobby Pettit||Zoe (1828)||Extempore (1843)|
|2||Charles Marson||Galata (1832)||Cara (1839)|
|2||James Edwards||Cobweb (1824)||Charlotte West (1830)|
Some have gone as far as to suggest that leading trainers such as O’Brien and their owners don’t target the Classics in the same was as years gone by. The validity of that argument is lessened somewhat by the presence of Richard Hannons Snr and Jr, Andre Fabre, Jim Bolger, Mark Johnson, Saeed bin Suroor and Sir Michael Stoute alongside many other powerful and successful trainers in the winners’ list since the turn of the century.