Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes (Newmarket) Betting Tips & Preview – Sunday 6th May 2018

Newmarket’s excellent Guineas meeting moves into its second day on Sunday, with the cracking seven race card being headlined by this top-class contest for the fillies. Bestowing both glory on the day, and immense breeding value when looking to the future, this is the early season contest which trainers, owners and jockeys alike all want to win.

This year’s edition looks far from straightforward, but overall we will be backing the prize to go the same was as in the last two years. If there is to be a fly in the ointment though it may well come in the form of one of the more unheralded runners from the home team.

Top Tips

Happily to win @ 11/4

Anna Nerium each way @ 14/1

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Race Info

The fillies line up to tackle the mile trip of this Group 1 contest. A total of £500,000 in prize money is on offer, with the ground currently described as good.

GoingDistanceGradePrize MoneyRunnersEW Terms
Good 1m Group 1 £500,000 18 Runners 1/4 1-3

Recent Winners

This may be the first Classic of the British flat season, but the home based trainers haven’t fared so well in recent years, winning just three of the past 10 renewals. This total of three has been matched by France, with Ireland unsurprisingly boasting the best record with four wins.

Whilst a few of these will be making their seasonal debut here, the recent stats favour those to have had a prep run. Seven of the past 10 winners were making their second or third appearance of the season.

2017 Winter 9/1 Aidan O’Brien Wayne Lordan
2016 Minding 11/10 Aidan O’Brien Ryan Moore
2015 Legatissimo 13/2 David Wachman Ryan Moore
2014 Miss France 7/1 Andre Fabre Maxime Guyon
2013 Sky Lantern 9/1 Richard Hannon Snr Richard Hughes

Analysis: Ballydoyle Set To Bag Another

Winning this event in each of the past two seasons is impressive enough, but when we consider that Aidan O’Brien also had the second 12 months ago, and the 2nd and 3rd in 2017, his recent dominance of the race becomes that bit more impressive.

We have seen just the one winning favourite in the past five years though, suggesting it can sometimes pay to look beyond the obvious.

Happily Heads O’Brien Team

As outlined above, the first port of call when assessing this contest is the yard of Irish maestro, Aidan O’Brien. O’Brien has five in the 2018 renewal at the time of writing, four of whom are sired by perennial champion, Galileo. It is the one not by the Derby winning stallion who has attracted the money leading up to the race though, in the form of the Fastnet Rock filly, I Can Fly.

The gamble on that one looks interesting, but purely on form it is Happily who is the clear pick of the O’Brien squad. Already twice a Group 1 winner, she can be forgiven her flop in the Breeders Cup on her final start at two, as it’s a big ask for a juvenile filly to go over there, and getting no sort of run for much of the race certainly didn’t help. Counting impressive Craven winner Masar amongst her victims last year, and likely to improve this season, she looks a solid favourite.

Appleby At The Double With Dubawi Daughters

Team Godolphin haven’t won this since back in 2011, when Blue Bunting came home in front under Frankie Dettori. In the form of the Charlie Appleby-trained duo of Wild Illusion and Soliloquy, they do have a couple of live contenders this year though. With Wild Illusion reportedly favouring some ease under foot, and Soliloquy more suited by quicker conditions, it would seem that the ground is coming in favour of the latter. Quite an impressive winner of the Nell Gwyn at this track last time, with the useful Altyn Orda back in second, there’s plenty to like about the way she went about her business from the front that day, and having already won over this trip as a two year old can be expected to get the distance well.

It’s tough to dismiss Wild Illusion purely due to the ground though. She did win on debut on good to firm and her win in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac reads very well. Those in behind including the smart Ballydoyle filly Magical, and Polydream who had previously beaten Fillies’ Mile winner, Laurens.

Anna Another In With A Chance

It wasn’t expected by the market, nor by trainer Richard Hannon, but Anna Nerium’s win last time out at this track in the bet365 European Free Handicap was some effort. Charles Hills’ Nebo was one of those in behind that day, fully 8¼l adrift of Anna Nerium at the line. That’s the same, Nebo, who was beaten so narrowly by current 2000 Guineas favourite Gustav Klimt in the Superlative Stakes last season. Like the Appleby duo, this one is also by Dubawi, and greatly impressed in the manner in which she both travelled and quickened last time.

Final Verdict – Happy to Back Happily and Anna

Overall we like Happily here. Full brother Gleneagles won the 2000 Guineas, whilst sister, Marvelous, won the Irish version of this race. In excellent hands, and already proven at Group 1 level, she is fancied to extend the family tradition.

The Godolphin runners look a decent option for an each way punt but look tough to split. At a bigger price take a chance on Anna Nerium who took a huge step forward last time and may do so again here.

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