Breeders’ Cup Classic Betting Tips, Winners & History

Next Race: TBD

The next renewal of this race has not been scheduled yet. We will update this once the schedule has been released for next season. The race info, trends and tips shown below will be updated for the next renewal once the final declarations have been made.

Breeders' Cup Classic Betting Tips

Note: The following tips are from 2020. Tips for the next renewal will be added once the final declarations have been made.

Legendary US handler Bob Baffert has handles plenty of speedballs over the years and he tops the all-time trainer’s table in this race, courtesy of his three consecutive victories between 2014 and 2016 (with Bayern, American Pharoah and Arrogate). Baffert has sent out the runner-up twice since the latest of those wins and will have high hopes of going one better this time around, as he sends Authentic, Improbable and Maximum Security to post.

Of the jockeys on show, Javier Castellano (Global Campaign), Irad Ortiz, Jnr. (Improbable) and Joel Rosario (Tom’s D’Etat) have all came out on top in this prestigious contest in the past. Irad Ortiz Jr will likely have the freshest memories of his victory having come home in front in the 2019 edition aboard Vino Rosso.

The only outright shock in this race in recent times was the 20/1 success of Drosselmeyer in 2011. However, this still hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for supporters of the market leader of late. The past 10 years have featured just the one winning jolly, American Pharoah at a measly 4/6, resulting in a level stakes loss of -£8.33 for favourite backers.

In terms of more specific trends, you should be looking for a horse that finished in the top three last time out. All of the last 20 winners of this one managed that, with 19 of those 20 also having previously won over nine furlongs or more. In terms of preparing for this contest, 17 of 20 were last seen at Belmont, Santa Anita or Saratoga. Given that has accounted for only 53% of the field over the past two decades, that 85% strike rate is quite a decent trend to think about.

Improbable – 11/4

Bob Baffert really does look to boast a very strong hand in this year’s edition, with his three runners taking up thee of the first four places in the market. Heading that trio, and looking set to start as outright favourite this year, is the four year old, Improbable.

This son of City Zip looked destined for the big time following a perfect juvenile campaign which culminated in a five-length romp in a Grade 1 at Los Alamitos. However, it’s fair to say things then didn’t go quite as well as may have been hoped for last year, with the colt winning only one of seven starts – particularly as that lone success came down at Listed level.

Fast forward to the current campaign and Baffert appears to have found the key to the strapping chestnut. Courtesy of impressive successes in the Hollywood Gold Cup, Whitney Stakes and Awesome Again Stakes, he now heads into this seeking a Grade 1 four timer and looks a major threat to all.

That latest success in the Awesome Again was particularly easy on the eye, as he cruised from last to first to win by an eased down 4½l from his highly rated stablemate Maximum Security. With it also coming at Santa Anita over 9f you can tick off more good trends boxes and so the market may well have things right this year.

Authentic – 6/1

When looking at Baffert’s three previous winners of this race – Bayern, American Pharoah and Arrogate – one thing they all had in common, is that they were all three years old at the time of their victory. The fact that Baffert has never won the race with anything other than a three year old, makes his Kentucky Derby winner, Authentic, well worth a second look in this.

Unraced at two, he began his career with back to back successes at Santa Anita before coming up just short when second in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. He did shape as though he wasn’t quite at peak fitness that day though and duly landed his two subsequent starts, culminating in that Kentucky Derby success when seemingly bursting the bubble of Tiz The Law, who also goes here.

Only second last time out in the Preakness, that was still a fine run to only go down by a neck to a filly in Swiss Skydiver who got first run up the rail and wasn’t for passing on the day. With close to 10 lengths back to the third, the form looks solid, and if able to get to the lead turning for home, he may well prove tough to pass.

Tom’s D’Etat – 6/1

Also well worth a place on the shortlist, in what looks like being a wide open renewal, is the Albert M Stall Jr. seven year old, Tom’s D’Etat. Two years older than anything else in this year’s field – and indeed than any horse to have ever won this race in the past, his advancing years are a concern, but purely on the form book he would look to boast excellent claims.

Now a winner of eight of his 13 career starts, this horse has certainly had his issues over the years, but those problems do mean he is very lightly raced for one his age and, having proven himself to be a top notch performer last season, has looked as well as ever so far in the current campaign.

The run that really makes this one of interest here is his comeback effort in the Oaklawn Mile back in April when absolutely cruising up on the outside to score cosily from the flat to the boards leader – particularly as that leader was non-other than the favourite for this, Improbable. The Bob Baffert runner did gain his revenge over Tom’s ‘Etat last time out in the Whitney Stakes, but that 2½l defeat doesn’t really tell the whole story, as Tom’s D’Etat lost more than that amount of ground when badly stumbling at the start and looked to hit the line full of running. Likely to be doing all of his best work late, he shouldn’t be too far away at the line. At considerably longer odds than the favourite he is sure to have plenty of backers.