Cesarewitch Stakes (Newmarket) Betting Tips & Preview – Saturday 13th October 2018

We have real variety on offer from Newmarket this coming weekend. On a day labelled “Future Champions Day”, there is unsurprisingly an overload of top juvenile action for those with Classic aspirations headed into next season, but it’s not all about the Group class performers. Also on the card is one of the premier handicap contests of the season, as the stayers go to post in this event.

This is as competitive a renewal as ever, with strong challengers from both sides of the Irish Sea set to go to post. Overall though we will be siding with a man who has few peers when it comes to guiding one to victory around here.

Top Tips

Vis A Vis each way @ 10/1

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Race Info

2m2f is the trip for this Class 2 heritage handicap, set to be run on good to firm going this year and offering a not inconsiderable £500,000 in total prize money.

GoingDistanceGradePrize MoneyRunnersEW Terms
Good to firm 2m2f Class 2 £500,000 Max 34 Runners 1/4 1-5

Recent Winners

The results over the past decade would suggest that this is a mightily tough race to predict. For whilst one of the biggest gambles of the season was landed in the race last year when market leader Withhold came out on top, it doesn’t always work out that way. In the past 10 years alone, we have witnessed two winners at 50/1 and two at 66/1.

No question about the man to follow in the saddle in recent years, with Silvestre De Sousa registering three wins in the past five renewals – a remarkable run of success in such a competitive contest.

2017 Withhold 5/1 Roger Charlton Silvestre De Sousa
2016 Sweet Selection 7/1 Hughie Morrison Silvestre De Sousa
2015 Grumeti 50/1 Alan King Adam Beschizza
2014 Big Easy 10/1 Philip Hobbs Tom Queally
2013 Scatter Dice 66/1 Mark Johnston Silvestre De Sousa

Analysis: V-is For Victory

We have a big field to wade through once again this year, but luckily we do have a couple of decent trends in evidence to help us narrow the field. The first concerns the weight carried by the winner, with eight of the past 10 having been saddled with 8st11lb or less on the day.

Secondly when looking at the age of the contenders, seven of the past eight winners have been between four and seven years of age, so we may increase our chances if focussing upon the runners who fall into this bracket.

De Sousa To Do It Again?

Given his recent record in the race, it perhaps isn’t surprising that the mount of Silvestre De Sousa has come in for significant support once again this year. The Neil Mullholland runner, Vis A Vis does also have plenty to recommend him other than the man in the saddle though. Only joining his current yard in February of this year, he has had just the two runs since, and won them both. This trip will be the furthest he has encountered to date, but he looks to possess an admirable attitude and wasn’t stopping at the end of two miles on the all-weather last time out at Kempton.

Stratum To Stay On Strongest?

Considering the marathon trip over which this is run, it perhaps isn’t too surprising that runners from the National Hunt yards tend to fare pretty well here, with the names of Alan King, Philip Hobbs and Nicky Henderson all featuring amongst the recent winning trainers. Topping the list from this category this year looks to be the Willie Mullins runner, Stratum. Going in the colours of Tony Bloom, which were carried to victory by Withhold last year, this one isn’t the most consistent, but is undoubtedly a talent on a going day, as illustrated when running away with the 2m½f JLT Cup at Newbury this year. A staying on third over 2m4f in the Ascot Stakes earlier in the season, this trip ought to prove no issue.

Balding To Prove Best?

Another for the shortlist is the Andrew Balding runner, Cleonte. A good winner of the stayers’ event on Shergar Cup day at Ascot last time out, this five year old son of Sir Percy appears to be running into form at just the right time for this. A little unlucky when not beaten far behind Stratum in the JLT Cup, he has been doing all his best work late at around 2m recently, and this step up in trip may help him cope with a 3lb rise for that latest success.

Final Verdict: Vis A Vis each way

There are many in with chances here, with Willie Mullins in particular looking to boast a strong hand amongst the current entries. Stratum is feared, but at a pretty skinny price we will look a little further down the list for our bet.

In terms of age, weight carried and jockey, it is Vis A Vis who looks to be the best fit on the trends. The form of his recent wins also looks pretty solid with Just In Time – who he beat comfortably in August – having gone on to score twice since. Side with the mount of De Sousa each way.

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