Champagne Stakes Betting Tips & Predictions – Doncaster, Saturday 14th September 2019

The focus at Doncaster this coming Saturday will quite rightly be upon the final Classic of the season that is the St Leger. There is however another race on the card we are looking forward to almost just as much. This juvenile event has been won by a number of smart performers over the years and the 2019 edition looks to be well up to scratch.

Richard Hannon had been responsible for both the first and second favourite earlier in the week but he’s opted to put all his eggs in one basket. Mums Tipple is the one who made way, leaving Threat as Hannon’s sole hope. It would seem the trainer is confident Threat alone can get the job done and we are too.

Top Tips

Threat to win @ 13/8

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

Race Info

Restricted to the two year olds, this 7f Group 2 contest offers £75,000 in total prize money and looks set to be run on good to firm ground this year.

GoingDistanceClassPrize MoneyRunnersEW Terms
Good to firm 7f Group 2 £75,000 5 1/5 1-3

Recent Winners

The British-based trainers have held the edge in the past decade, with eight wins to Ireland’s two. Richard Hannon Sr. played his part in the British rule with back to back victories while his son added another just months after his own retirement.

This has been a good race for the market leader with seven of the past 10 favourites coming home in front. Simply backing the jolly would have resulted in a 35% profit over this period.

2018 Too Darn Hot 4/11 John Gosden Frankie Dettori
2017 Seahenge 8/1 Aidan O’Brien Donnacha O’Brien
2016 Rivet 7/4 William Haggas Andrea Atzeni
2015 Emotionless 8/13 Charlie Appleby William Buick
2014 Estidhkaar 10/11 Richard Hannon Paul Hanagan

Analysis: Threat’s extra weight of no concern

For this race, Group 1 and 2 winners are saddled with an extra 3lbs in weight. These heavier ridden horses have won just two of the last 12 Champagne Stakes renewals, on the face of it suggesting the penalty does have a significant impact. It’s very rare for Group 1 or 2 winners to end up here though, with just three featuring since 2012. Threat is the only one riding heavier this time but his small penalty is unlikely to have any impact on proceedings.

Always a Threat

After a solid but unremarkable debut win, Threat headed to the Coventry Stakes where he was only denied another victory by a superb run from Arizona. Eager for another shot at a Group 2 title, Hannon sent his chestnut colt to Goodwood for the Richmond Stakes. A poor start ended up costing him though as he once again lost out by a small margin. There was no denying Threat in the Gimcrack Stakes though as the colt put in a near perfect run, keeping on strongly all the way to the line. He looked like he could’ve gone even further then so a step up to seven furlongs on a flat galloping course will surely prove ideal.

Newmarket form may not translate

Both Royal Crusade (6/1) and Juan Elcano (5/1) impressed during a summer visit to Newmarket. The former held his own in a Class 4 contest while the latter finished just a length behind Mystery Power in the Superlative Stakes.

With further improvements likely from two highly inexperienced runners, some tipsters have been putting their confidence in the pair. A good run at Newmarket certainly counts for plenty but it is a course with an emphasis on stamina due to its many undulations. Facing a completely different test here, one virtually flat throughout, the greater need for speed could hurt them.

Myers leads weak O’Brien duo

Aidan O’Brien seems more focussed on the weekend’s action at Leopardstown with many of his best horses set to take part across the Irish Sea. He’s kept a pair of runners in for this race, Fort Myers (16/1) and Royal Dornoch (33/1), but neither look like making any sort of impression. The former did put in a fairly solid shift in the Group 3 Round Tower Stakes recently but still wasn’t up to the kind of standard he’d need to win this contest on his seven furlong debut.

Final Verdict: Threat to win

Backing the favourites has been a most profitable tactic in this race over the last decade and we’ve no reason to think history will betray us. Threat has offered consistent quality since first appearing on the competitive circuit and the colt has the raw pace to dominate this small and not overly competitive field.

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