It is to the headquarters of British flat racing to which we turn for the pick of this Saturday’s action, with Newmarket laying on an excellent card. The pick of the seven races on offer on Future Champions Day – from a class perspective at least – is this often influential heat for the juveniles.
The market has proven a good guide here in recent times, with five of the past seven favourites obliging. We will be hoping for more of the same in 2019 as it is the jolly, the sensational Pinatubo, who will be carrying our cash in this one.
Next Race: TBD
The next renewal of this race has not been scheduled yet. We will update this once the schedule has been released for next season. The race info, trends and tips shown below will be updated for the next renewal once the final declarations have been made.
We have £533,750 in total prize money on offer for this Group 1 contest held over seven furlongs and set to be run on good to soft ground this year.
|Going||Distance||Class||Prize Money||Runners||EW Terms|
|Good to soft||7f||Group 1||£533,750||9||1/5 1-3|
Dewhurst Stakes Betting Tips
Note: The following tips are from the last running of the race. Tips for the next renewal will be added once the final declarations have been made.
With an official rating of 128 at the tender age of two, big things are tipped for Pinatubo. He’s ranked a full 14lbs higher than his nearest rival here, emphasising what a class act he is. Charlie Appleby recently called him the “best two year old I’ve trained” and there is not a trace of hyperbole in that declaration. If you’ve not already heard the name, pay very close attention now because we may be witnessing one of the next thoroughbred greats.
PINATUBO WORTHY OF SKINNY PRICE
It’s not too often you see a horse set off a odds of 1/3 but then again, how often is it that you see a horse quite like Pinatubo? His stunning nine-length win in the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes saw him become the highest rated two year old since 1994, already eclipsing the mark Frankel set during the end of his juvenile season.
Worryingly for his rivals, the colt only seems to be getting better with each showing. He made light work of the field in the Chesham Stakes but found life even easier a month later in the Vintage Stakes. Seemingly yet to reach his peak, the son of Shamardal looks set for another emphatic win.
WICHITA THE BEST OF THE REST
In many other Dewhurst renewals, Wichita (4/1) would have enough talent to win so it’s unlucky he shares the same age as Pinatubo. O’Brien’s colt also won by a long margin last time out, beating the field by a full seven lengths in the Tattersalls Stakes. Having shone so brightly at Newmarket then, you can expect a strong showing from him here even if it won’t be strong enough for the win. Good to soft ground might suit him a little more than the market leader but it’s not something that will prove decisive.
A JOURNEY TO FAR FOR ARIZONA
As the winner of the incredible competitive Coventry Stakes, you might think Arizona (14/1) would command a little more market support here. Although defeated in the Group 1 Prix Morny next time out, it’s easy to excuse the loss given the ground as Deauville was testing to say the least. The two year old simply didn’t have the stamina to last that test and this proved the case on his seven furlong debut. At the Curragh, the 5/1 shot stood every chance two furlongs out but then quickly faded as Pinatubo rode clear.
Final Verdict: Pinatubo To Win
No horse has yet got the better of Pinatubo and it’s an unbeaten run set to last the whole of his debut racing season. Wichita can ensure he doesn’t win as easily as he did at Curragh but ultimately Charlie Appleby’s supremely talented colt will have the class to see out the trip with few concerns.
Dewhurst Stakes Winners
With six wins in total in the race, Aidan O’Brien is still two behind John Porter and Frank Butters in the all-time list. Having landed four of the past six renewals, he’s closing in fast and is in with a shot of getting one closer with four names among those declared this time: Wichita, Arizona, Monarch Of Egypt and Year Of The Tiger.
It wasn’t too long ago we witness a series of shock sin tis race with Intense Focus (2008), Beethoven (2009) and Parish Hall (2011) all winning at prices 20/1 or greater. We’ve not witnessed such a major shock since though with the average SP of the last seven winners just over 5/2.
|2018||Too Darn Hot||Evens||John Gosden||Frankie Dettori|
|2017||U S Navy Flag||5/1||Aidan O’Brien||Ryan Moore|
|2016||Churchill||8/11||Aidan O’Brien||Ryan Moore|
|2015||Air Force Blue||4/6||Aidan O’Brien||Ryan Moore|
|2014||Belardo||10/1||Roger Varian||Andrea Atzeni|
Budding two-year-olds have the chance to end their first season racing on a huge high note thanks to the £500,000 Dewhurst Stakes. Run every October, the seven-furlong test is the most prestigious contest in Britain for juvenile horses. Both colts and fillies can compete, with the latter handed a 3lb allowance but there is no space for geldings. Often attracting the best young horses around, many Dewhurst winners are names you’ll end up seeing again and again in following seasons so this is definitely a race to watch.
Originally founded all the way back in 1875, this race has a long history of producing some really fine winners. The Hungarian-bred Kisber claimed glory in the inaugural contest before winning the Derby at Epsom a year later. The following three Dewhurst champions also went on to win at least one Classic as three-year-olds. It seems only appropriate then that today the Group 1 race is the feature event of Newmarket’s Champions’ Day meeting.
NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE SUCCESS
You’d think that winning such an elite two-year-old contest would act as a definite platform for more glory the following season but this is not always the case. For each Frankel or Dawn Approach, there are another two horses whose Dewhurst win ends up being the peak of their careers.
It really is very much a guessing game when trying to predict which horses will make the cut as a three-year-old as there appears to be very little in the way of middle ground. Looking at data since 2003, only one Dewhurst-winning horse that managed a three-year-old win at all, did so at lower than Group 1 standard.
This contest is seen as a sort of birthplace for future Classic champions and there is certainly a degree of truth in this. Churchill (2016), Dawn Approach (2012), Frankel (2010), New Approach (2007) and Sir Percy (2005) won either the 2,000 Guineas or the Epsom Derby the following season. So, while future success is far from a guarantee, Dewhurst winners are definitely worth keeping your eye on when returning from the winter break.
FAVOURITES NOT PAYING WELL
Any punter who put their faith in Beethoven during the 2009 Dewhurst edition certainly wouldn’t have forgotten about that win. Returning £33 profit on a £1 bet, the colt’s victory is one of the biggest shocks in recent times. It’s not the only surprise result this race has seen lately though, Intense Focus (2009) and Parish Hall (2011) both won at 20/1 while Belardo (2014) also won at a double-digit price. Favourites have won their fair share in the meantime but they trade a fair level stakes loss given that their average winning price since 2007 is close to 4/5.
FROM DESTRUCTION TO DEAD HEAT
The Second World War only forced one cancellation of the Dewhurst Stakes but nearly 50 years later, the British weather was enough to see the race abandoned. In all fairness to the organisers, they had no other choice as powerful winds tore through the nation. So strong were the gales that all temporary structures at Newmarket were completely flattened. Even some of the fences separating horses with spectators had taken a battering so there was no possibility of a quick fix.
Back as usual the following the year, the Dewhurst renewal was one to remember. There was no winner in 1987 due to the cancellation but in 1988 we had two courtesy of a dead heat. It was only the first time since 1910 that two horses couldn’t be separated as they crossed the finish line. Any other result would’ve been a little unfair given how tirelessly Prince of Dance and Scenic battled down the final two furlongs. The two horses gave it their absolute everything during what was a fair and completely unobstructed slog.
You can watch the pair battle their way to shared glory here: