Falmouth Stakes Betting Tips & Predictions – Newmarket, Friday 12th July 2019

The Falmouth Stakes stands as the sole Group 1 event on day two of the July Festival. It hasn’t always been such a top-quality race though, having initially been awarded Group 3 status when the present grading system was introduced in 1971.

This year’s edition doesn’t look a vintage renewal on paper, with nothing of the class of last year’s winner Alpha Centauri in the field. Of the six fillies on show, only one has previously scored at the highest level, and we fancy she may well be the one to bag the pot.

Top Tips

One Master to win @ 5/2

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Race Info

One mile is the trip for this Group 1 affair. Set to be run on good to firm going this year, the race offers £200,000 in total prize money.

GoingDistanceGradePrize MoneyRunnersEW Terms
Good to Firm 1m Group 1 £200,000 6 Runners 1/4 1-2

Recent Winners

Favourites or second favourites have won five of the last six renewals of this race. In the seven years prior to that however, Goldikova was the only victorious favourite.

Ryan Moore has ridden three of the last five winners, including two for Aidan O’Brien. Moore gets the leg up on I Can Fly for the Ballydoyle maestro this year.

YearWinnerSPTrainerJockey
2018 Alpha Centauri 4/9 Jessica Harrington Colm O’Donoghue
2017 Roly Poly 6/4 Aidan O’Brien Ryan Moore
2016 Alice Springs 5/2 Aidan O’Brien Ryan Moore
2015 Amazing Maria 17/2 David O’Meara James Doyle
2014 Integral 15/8 Michael Stoute Ryan Moore

Analysis: There Can Be Only One

We had a small field in this last year, with just the seven runners going to post on the day, and this year’s edition looks set to be smaller still, with only six fillies holding their ground. British trainers William Haggas and Roger Varian are yet to win this prize, but will be giving it a good shot in 2019, with the pair being responsible for 67% of the field between them.

Haggas To Master The Opposition

If judged solely on their most recent performance, then the filly they all have to beat is likely the William Haggas-trained, One Master. Racing away from the main action in the Queen Anne Stakes, this daughter of Fastnet Rock swept around the outside in eye-catching style to hit the front inside the final furlong. In the end she couldn’t repel the late surge of winner Lord Glitters and runner up Beat The Bank, but to finish third in one of the premier one mile events of the season was still a cracking effort and a big career best. She looks to hold rock solid claims.

Also going for Haggas is Beshaayir, who will be having just her second start of the season here. She may have been allowed an easy time of it out in front at the Curragh last time out, but looked to have her rivals toiling a fair way from home that day, and never really looked in any real danger of being caught. Major market rivals One Master and I Can Fly were in behind, and she seems sure to go well in the hands of Franke Dettori.

Varian Victorious?

The Roger Varian two-pronged attack consists of the only two three year olds in the field – Qabala and Mot Juste. Mot Juste can easily be forgiven her flop in the Guineas last time out, and likely does have more to offer, but the stable’s number one would appear to be 1000 Guineas third, Qabala.

As good as that 1¼l third to Hermosa was, there is an argument for upgrading that run due to the fact that she raced away from the main action, and also appeared to be hampered at a crucial stage. It may prove wise to ignore her effort in the Irish 1000 last time out as she scoped badly after the race. If fit and well she has the form to go close in receipt of weight from her elders.

Six Up For Stoute?

The most successful trainer on show this year is Newmarket’s own Sir Michael Stoute. Sitting on five wins heading into the race, Stoute needs just one more success to join Alec Taylor, Jnr. as the most successful handler in the history of the event.

Representing Stoute in 2019 is the Cheveley Park filly, Veracious. We have been keen on this daughter of Frankel a couple of times already this season, but its safe to say that – whilst she hasn’t run badly – she hasn’t hit the heights quite yet. It’s too soon to write her off given the promise she showed in 2018, but having been beaten twice in Group 2 company and once at Group 3 level already this term, something of a leap of faith is needed to back her here.

Final Verdict: One Master to win

Roger Varian’s Qabala is a filly we like but we are a little reluctant to back her on the back of such a poor run last time out, for all that she did have her excuses. Stablemate Mot Juste looks a little overpriced, but overall we fancy William Haggas may hold the key to this race.

Beshaayir looks dangerous, but is 3lbs worse off with One Master than when beating her at the Curragh in a race where she looked much the fitter of the duo. That Queen Anne performance of One Master really stands out, and we fancy her to time the finishing burst right this time.

About

Postcard of Mereworth Castle
Mereworth Castle, Home of Lord Falmouth's Stud Farm, Wikimedia Commons

May’s Guineas Meeting at Newmarket may raise the curtain for the big-time flat racing action each year, but it is far from the only major event to be held at the headquarters of the British flat racing game. The three-day July meeting at the track is one of the real summertime highlights for many racing fans, with top quality Group action on offer on each of the three days.

One of the standout contests on the second day is this Group 1 event held over a mile, and restricted to fillies and mares aged three and older. First taking place way back in 1911 this contest was named in honour of the 6th Viscount Of Falmouth, Evelyn Boscawen.

Regularly featuring a clash between the current season’s Classic crop and the best of the older horses, the race has been the scene of a number of scintillating performances over the years. With the likes of the tough and talented Soviet Song, globetrotting great Goldikova and Alpha Centauri all featuring on the roll of honour, this is a race where some true greats have shone.

Increasing Quality Over Time

The race hasn’t always occupied such a lofty place on the racing calendar. Initially granted Group 3 status upon the introduction of the modern racing classifications in 1971, it took fully 26 years for the event to attain Group 2 status. It didn’t stop there though, and as the quality of field continued to improve over the years, the race finally attained the coveted Group 1 classification in 2004. From that time the Falmouth Stakes has only continued to go from strength to strength, and with prize money hitting a very impressive £200,000 in 2018, it remains one of the most coveted fillies and mares contests of the season.

Youth Holds The Edge

In common with the vast majority of these events which are open both to the three year olds and the older runners, the weight for age scale applies here. In the case of this race the three year olds receive a weight allowance of 7lbs in order to help compensate for the greater physical maturity of the older runners. History shows us that this weight concession is one which the older runners have struggled to overcome, as illustrated in the chart below which breaks down the results between 1979 and 2018.

Chart Showing the Age of Falmouth Stakes Winners Between 1979 and 2018

With 27 wins as opposed to 13 for the older performers, the three year olds have landed two thirds of the editions held over this period. During this time only two winners have been older than four. Those are trends that are certainly something to bear in mind when placing those bets.

Stoute Closing In On All Time Lead

The benchmark amongst the trainers was set very early in this race, with Alec Taylor, Jnr. winning six of the first 14 editions. More than a century after the first of those wins, that record still stands, but perhaps not for too much longer.

Sir Michael Stoute is a man who has done pretty well with his fillies over the years and has certainly made his presence felt in this event. Getting off the mark in 1983 with Royal Heroine, Stoute then sent out Sonic Lady to become one of only two dual winners of the race in 1986 and 1987 – James Fanshawe’s Soviet Song (2004, 2005) was the other. Recording a fifth success with Integral in 2014 moved Stoute to within one of the lead.

Sir Michael Stoute's Falmouth Stakes Winners

Year Horse Jockey Owner
2014 Integral Ryan Moore Cheveley Park Stud
1998 Lovers Knot John Reid Cheveley Park Stud
1987 Sonic Lady Walter Swinburn Sheikh Mohammed
1986 Sonic Lady Walter Swinburn Sheikh Mohammed
1983 Royal Heroine Walter Swinburn Robert Sangster

No prizes for guessing the name of the most successful rider in the history of the race. As with so many of these classy events it is the great Lester Piggott who is out in front on his own having recorded seven wins between the years of 1957 and 1994. Ryan Moore fares best of the modern riders, with three wins, so we expect Piggott’s record will stand for some time yet.

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