Fillies’ Mile Betting Tips & Predictions – Newmarket, Friday 11th October 2019

The flat racing season is drawing to a close and what a debut season it has been for many of the two year old’s taking part in this highly regarded test. Often attracting some of the most promising young fillies in the country, many winners go on to produce even greater things after the winter break.

Former champions include the likes of Minding, Rhododendron and Laurens but who will be the next to join them this Friday? There are several strong contenders in the mix but just like every Hollywood romantic comedy, we are expecting Love to prevail.

Top Tips

Love to win @ 10/3

Powerful Breeze each way @ 6/1

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Race Info

One mile is the trip for this Group 1 contest set to be run on soft ground and offering £567,500 in total prize money.

GoingDistanceClassPrize MoneyRunnersEW Terms
Soft 1m Group 1 £567,500 9 1/5 1-3

Recent Winners

It has been very much a case of hit or miss for the market leader in this race with half of the last 12 renewals having been won by the favourite or, in the case of Rhododendron, joint favourite.

Five of our last 12 champions had failed to win previously over one mile and three of them hadn’t even attempted the distance before. Lack of distance form/experience is no real concern as result, nor is a former Group quality triumph as it is something only just over half recent winners have enjoyed.

YearWinnerSPTrainerJockey
2018 Iridessa 14/1 Joseph O’Brien Wayne Lordan
2017 Laurens 10/1 Karl Burke P. J. McDonald
2016 Rhododendron 5/2 Aidan O’Brien Ryan Moore
2015 Minding 5/4 Aidan O’Brien Ryan Moore
2014 Together Forever 7/1 Aidan O’Brien Joseph O’Brien

Analysis: O’Brien closing in on Cecil’s record

Since this race first appeared in 1973, no trainer has saddled more winners than Henry Cecil (6). It’s a record under major threat from Aidan O’Brien however with the Irishman needing just one more victory to draw level. His entire hopes lie with Love here as, slightly unusually for him, he’s got just the one horse declared for a Group 1 contest.

Love lost due to soft ground

Had it not been for the forecasted soft ground at Newmarket, Love (10/3) could easily be heading the betting. Her best showings have come on better ground with her only previously effort in muddier conditions a two and three quarter length defeat when the 6/4 favourite at Curragh. After tiring during the final furlong then, this does raise some concerns over her ability to last a mile trip on soft ground but her price makes up for it.

She put in a superb showing to see off Daahyeh in the Moyglare Stud Stakes last month, fending off a stiff challenge from the talented favourite. It could be that her earlier defeat was merely an off-day as she looked so strong during the recent Group 1 win.

Palmer surprised at Breeze price

Hugo Palmer admitted he was a little shocked to see odds of around 6/1 being offered for Powerful Breeze. He believes the bookies’ are underestimating the daughter of Iffraaj who has proven form unlike some of her rivals. Having also “beautifully” handled a gallop on the Rowley Mile, Palmer is a trainer full of optimism here. It’s hard to say its overly misplaced either as his filly built on a solid debut win to claim the May Hill Stakes over one mile at Doncaster. The slow pace played right into her hands that day, allowing her to make a powerful surge from deep later on.

Cayenne Pepper may not prove so hot

Three consecutive victories means Cayenne Pepper (5/2) is our most red-hot option coming into this Fillies’ Mile renewal but good form guarantees nothing. The chestnut filly began her season with two victories in low quality affairs with performance that didn’t show any real standout ability. She did however impress when making all in the Curragh on her way to a Group 3 victory late August. She was left alone to run her own race that day, a costly mistake from her rivals, but not something likely to happen here.

Final Verdict: Love to win

She’s not a certainty due to the ground, but Love remains a worthy option for your money here. Proven quality in high-class affairs and hailing from a yard with plenty of history in this race, 10/3 is more than a fair price for a Group 1 winner. Also offering good value for money is Powerful Breeze as we agree with Hugo Palmer that a 6/1 price tag rather underestimates her ability.

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