We’ve got back to back Classic contests at the end of May, this time over in Ireland at the Curragh. Hot on the heels of Saturday’s Irish 2000 Guineas, Sunday sees the fillies given their chance to show what they are made of in the Irish 1000 Guineas.
Next Race: Saturday, 13th June 2020
The next race is scheduled to run on 13th June 2020. The race info, trends and tips shown below will be updated for the next renewal once the final declarations have been made.
Last Run: 26th May 2019
- Winner: Hermosa
- SP: 5/2
- Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
- Jockey: Ryan Moore
Race InfoOne mile is the trip for this Group 1 contest set to be run on good to firm ground this year, with a total of €400,000 in total prize money on offer.
|Going||Distance||Grade||Prize Money||Runners||EW Terms|
|Good To Firm||1m||Group 1||£€400,000||11 Runners||1/5 1-3|
Irish 1000 Guineas Betting Tips
Hermosa bids to back up her win at Newmarket by following up here, much as stablemate Winter did in 2017. We fancy she will go close, but may just be undone by another from the same yard.
Another win in the race for Aidan O’Brien would be of particular significance this year. His seven previous successes see the master of Ballydoyle currently tied for the all-time lead amongst trainers with Hubert Hartigan. Should he succeed in 2019 he will be out in front on his own. Responsible for five of the current field of 11, O’Brien certainly looks set to give it a good go.
The British raiders are often significantly outnumbered – as looks likely to be the case again this year – but they have tasted the odd success. Charles Hills and Mick Channon have been triumphant with Just The Judge and Samitar respectively in the past 10 years.
As ever the English 1000 Guineas form looks set to be strongly represented this year, with the first, third, fifth, sixth and eighth from Newmarket all set to go to post. Will that form hold up? Or like last year will it be another runner who announces themselves on the big stage in this one?
HERM THE HOT FAVOURITE
Clear favourite for the race this year is Aidan O’Brien’s English 1000 Guineas winning daughter of Galileo, Hermosa. This one only managed to win two from seven last season, but showed definite signs that she may well be up to making her presence felt at the very top level when finishing runner up in both the Fillies’ Mile and Criterium International. She didn’t take long to deliver on that juvenile promise when doing it from the front in determined fashion at Newmarket on her first start of the season. A repeat of that level of form would make her the one to beat here, with the stiffer track not expected to inconvenience this tough performer.
JUST UP TO THE JOB?
Hermosa may ultimately have won the 1000 Guineas, but she wasn’t the most fancied of the O’Brien runners headed into that race. That honour belonged to the choice of Ryan Moore, Just Wonderful; and for us this daughter of Dansili was the big eyecatcher to come out of the opening fillies’ Classic of the season.
She travelled really nicely in behind that day before looking to not handle the dip at all – changing stride and generally looking uncomfortable – before staying on again for sixth to be beaten only 2½l. Always held in the highest regard at home, this track ought to pose far fewer problems and she can be expected to get closer to the favourite at the very least.
LOOK TO THE EAST FOR THE WINNER?
Roger Varian’s Qabala ran a cracker to finish third in the 1000 Guineas, but there wouldn’t appear to be any obvious reason why she should reverse form with the favourite, and the best of the British runners may prove to be East from the yard of Kevin Ryan.
This lightly raced daughter of Frankel landed her first two starts last season in good style before being sent over to Churchill Downs to take on the Americans in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Whilst she didn’t win that day, she did emerge with plenty of credit from the race, finding only the extremely highly regarded Newspaperofrecord too good on the day. Third in a heavy ground French 1000 Guineas on her return, the quicker ground here should suit her much better and she may well run a big race.
Final Verdict: Just Wonderful To Win
Hermosa is very tough to fault but may not have quite so much in hand here as the odds would suggest. Stablemate Just Wonderful is only rated 1lb her inferior according to the Irish handicapper, and would likely have finished much closer had she handled the track better at Newmarket last time out. At the prices she looks worth backing to reverse the form.
|2019||Hermosa||5/2||Aidan O'Brien||Ryan Moore|
|2018||Alpha Centauri||12/1||Jessica Harrington||Colm O’Donoghue|
|2017||Winter||8/13||Aidan O’Brien||Ryan Moore|
|2016||Jet Setting||9/1||Adrian Paul Keatley||Shane Foley|
|2015||Pleascach||11/2||Jim Bolger||Kevin Manning|
|2014||Marvellous||10/1||Aidan O’Brien||Ryan Moore|
|2013||Just The Judge||2/1||Charles Hills||Jamie Spencer|
|2012||Samitar||12/1||Mick Channon||Martin Harley|
|2011||Misty For Me||5/1||Aidan O'Brien||Seamie Heffernan|
|2010||Bethrah||16/1||Dermot Weld||Pat Smullen|
Such was the success of the inaugural Irish 2000 Guineas in 1921 that it was inevitable that the equivalent race for fillies would be introduced. So it proved to be with the Irish 1000 Guineas following just one year later.
The 1 mile race for three-year-old fillies has since grown to be every bit as important as the 2000 Guineas. Both races are now Group 1 contests and both are held at the Curragh every year exactly three weeks after the 1000 and 2000 Guineas take place at Newmarket. That scheduling is deliberate as the event organisers very much want the protagonists from the Newmarket race to make the trip across the Irish Sea to compete at the Curragh.
Given the similarities between the two races in terms of the distance and the horses competing in both you’d think it would be relatively straightforward for the best horse to win both races. It doesn’t quite work like that though, as the ground at the Curragh in May is often considerably softer than at Newmarket.
Winning both races therefore requires an adaptability and level of experience that is often beyond the three-year-old competitors, so those in the list below who followed up Newmarket success with a win at the Curragh are certainly fully deserving of the plaudits that came their way.
DUAL Irish AND British 1000 GUINEAS WINNERS
|Hermosa||Aidan O’Brien||Ryan Moore/Wayne Lordon||2019|
|Winter||Aidan O’Brien||Ryan Moore/Wayne Lordon||2017|
|Finsceal Beo||Jim Bolger||Kevin Manning||2007|
|Attraction||Mark Johnston||Kevin Darley||2004|
LEADING CONTENDERS HAVE HIGH CLASS ROUTES IN AND OUT
Connections of horses who run in both the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket and the Curragh (and sometimes the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches, which is the top class French mile long race for three-year-old fillies) have likely made the decision to keep their fillies running over a mile for the foreseeable future.
That much is made clear by the paths taken by the main contenders, which often include the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot (Winter and Alpha Centauri won both in 2017 and 2018 respectively), the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket and the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown towards the end of the season.
With the caveat that many horses who run in the Irish 1000 Guineas had their previous run at Newmarket, there are several potential routes into the contest at the Curragh. Whatever the route, the trends show that horses who ran in a Group level race last time out and those who had previous success at the Group level have a statistical edge.
IMPRESSIVE JOCKEY RECORD TO STAND FOR A VERY LONG TIME
Perhaps due to a familiarity with the sort of ground found at the Curragh, Irish-trained horses have a very good record in the Irish 1000 Guineas. A quick look at the list of successful trainers includes the familiar names of Aidan O’Brien, Jim Bolger and Dermot Weld multiple times. The big beasts of Irish training are sure to have several tempting runners in the Irish 1000 Guineas in the years to come. O’Brien became the most successful trainer in the history of the race when Hermosa won in 2019 and it would be no surprise whatsoever if he extends the record with an ninth win sooner rather than later.
Seven wins is the magic number in terms of the jockeys but we have to go back into history to find the holder of that record. Morny Wing is the man at the top of the charts, which proves his highly impressive longevity. Wing partnered Lady Violette to victory in the inaugural Irish 1000 Guineas and claimed his seventh win 25 years later when Sea Symphony won in 1947.
In more recent times it’s been tough for any one jockey to have any sort of dominance over the race with Ryan Moore, Christy Roche, Jamie Spencer, Michael Kinane and Seamie Heffernan all winning three times since 1976.