Queen Anne Stakes Betting Tips & Predictions – Ascot, Tuesday 18th June 2019

Royal Ascot begins with a bang, as ever, with three of the first four races at the festival being Group 1 affairs. The first of those comes in our opener as the best older milers in the game line up for the Queen Anne Stakes.

Towards the top of the market are several names who have won at Ascot previously but we’re backing the one who hasn’t. Laurens’ debut here last October didn’t go according to plan but she looks set to enjoy her return to Berkshire far more this time.

Top Tips

Laurens to win @ 6/1

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Race Info

One mile is the trip for this Group 1 affair. Set to be run on soft ground on the straight course, the event offers a whopping £600,000 in total prize money.

GoingDistanceGradePrize MoneyRunnersEW Terms
Soft 1m Group 1 £600,000 18 1/5 1-3

Recent Winners

Frankie Dettori’s win aboard Ramonti in 2007 was a sixth in the race, moving him level with Sir Gordon Richards for the all-time lead. In an attempt to break the record, this year the Italian will ride Dermolt Weld’s Hazapour, just as he did during the Epsom Derby.

The foreign raiders had endured something of a lean spell in this race, but victories for France (Solow) and the USA (Tepin) have gone some way to redressing the balance in the past five years.

YearWinnerSPTrainerJockey
2018 Accidental Agent 33/1 Eve Johnson Houghton Charles Bishop
2017 Ribchester 11/10 Richard Fahey William Buick
2016 Tepin 11/2 Mark Casse Julien Leparoux
2015 Solow 11/8 Freddy Head Maxime Guyon
2014 Toronado 4/5 Richard Hannon Richard Hughes

Analysis: Don’t lose faith in the market

Last year’s Queen Anne was quite the renewal. Accidental Agent claimed the unlikeliest of victories with fellow unfancied outsider Lord Glitters very close behind. Nobody could have foreseen how things panned out 12 months ago but it’s important to remember surprises are not the norm in this race. Out of the last 18 Queen Anne champions, 14 set off priced 15/2 or shorter and 10 of the last 11 came from the top three in the betting.

Can Brivido go the distance?

One major concern hanging over Le Brivido (4/1) is his lack of winning one mile experience. Only three Queen Anne champions since 2001 came into this race without a distance victory, something the Aidan O’Brien runner is still without. He’s twice attempted the trip but missed out narrowly in the 2017 Poule d’Essai des Poulains and more recently wound up fifth in the Lockinge Stakes. Not looking quite the horse he did as a three-year-old, the favourite doesn’t fully justify his price.

Laurens to turn table on Mustashry

The Lockinge Stakes has been a regular destination for Queen Anne winners with eight of the last 17 champions featuring in the Newmarket’s test. Two standout performers from May’s contest were Mustashry (9/2) and Laurens (6/1) with the former coming out on top after having more to give in the final 100 yards. The six-year-old will do very well to beat the filly once again though now that she’s shaken off a little bit of rust. Karl Burke reported late last month that the four-year-old is now in rude health so a big showing looks like coming from the Sun Chariot Stakes winner.

No accidents this time

We’ve not seen a horse win this race back to back since Dean Swift over 100 years ago so history is very much against Accidental Agent being first past the line this Tuesday. Everything went right for the now five-year-old 12 months ago but it’s hard to see conditions being so favourable again. Not only does he not tend to show up on softer ground but he’s too much of an inconsistent performer as poor showings at Newmarket and Deauville late last summer indicate. As an each way option there’s some still appeal there but you’d have to fancy at least one of Mustashry or Laurens beating him to first, just as they did last month.

Final Verdict: Laurens to win

Laurens failed to find her stride during her last Ascot appearance, a disappointing eighth in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes but we know how good the filly can be on her day. There were perhaps a few cobwebs on show in her recent Lockinge showing but Karl Burke will know exactly how to get the former Group 1 winner primed in time for Tuesday.

About

Statue of Queen Anne at St Pauls Cathedral
vic15, flickr

Although initially called the Trial Stakes, you’ll not find anyone who still refers to the Queen Anne Stakes by its original title as it was 1930 when it changed its name. It did so to honour the former monarch who is the founder of Ascot Racecourse itself. At this time, the contest was for three-year-olds and above but the minimum age increased to four in 2003. The change in eligibility also coincided with reclassification as the one mile contest enjoyed promotion to Group 1.

The boost in grading has seen the Queen Anne quickly establish itself as one of the highlight events on the first day of Royal Ascot. With a fitting purse to boot, it also stands as one of the leading one mile contests in the country and is the second big one of the season following the Lockinge Stakes.

Six is too late

Celebrating a sixth birthday means little change in the life of a human but for horses, it virtually signals the end of any hopes of winning this race. There hasn’t been a winner older than five years of age since 1976, despite a long list of runners seeking to put an end to this drought.

Realistically speaking, horses now only have two chances to claim glory in this race since the minimum age increased to four. Double winners have grown extinct as a result with it well over a century since a horse claimed back to back Queen Anne victories.

Chart Showing Age of Queen Anne Stakes Between 1980 and 2018

Watch out for the girls

It the males who predominately contest the Queen Anne but fillies and mares have been known to partake in the one mile contest. Those that do enjoy a three pound allowance over the rest of the field and twice in recent years has this made a telling difference. The slight weight advantage helped two mares, Tepin and Goldikova, secure victory by a length’s margin in 2016 and 2010 respectively. Having seen these two talented female horses battle to glory, it is wise to remember that the boys don’t always have it their own way.

Brook no shortage of luck

The childhood rhyme tells us that first’s the worst and second’s the best but this was not the case in the 1974 edition of the Queen Anne Stakes. The winner etched into the history books for the race was Brook, despite being the fourth horse past the post at Ascot. The three names that finished before him, Confusion, Gloss and Royal Prerogative, all faced disqualification for a variety of reasons. It was rather fitting that this trio in particular were denied victory as the royal stewards’ prerogative to change the results caused much confusion and rather took the gloss off the race.

Lockinge result not key

Run over the same distance but earlier on in the season, the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes can sometimes act as a useful guide for how this race might pan out. Many horses do compete in both top class events but winning the pair of them in the same summer is far from a regular occurrence. Ribchester (2017), Frankel (2011) and Canford Cliffs (2011) all pulled off the double but no horse managed the feat between 2002 and 2010. So, while you’ll want to pay some attention to the Lockinge Stakes result, don’t bank on their being a repeat outcome.

Lockinge Stakes Winners 2010 to 2019

Year Lockinge Stakes Winner Queen Anne St. Performance
2019 Mustashry ?
2018 Rhododendron Ninth
2017 Ribchester Winner
2016 Belardo Second
2015 Night Of Thunder Fifth
2014 Olympic Glory Did not run
2013 Farhh Did not run
2012 Frankel Winner
2011 Canford Cliffs Winner
2010 Paco Boy Second

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