Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Ascot) Betting Tips & Preview – Saturday 20th October 2018

It’s hard to pick out a standout contest on British Champions Day at Ascot, but if the list of recent winners is anything top go by, then there’s certainly a case to be made that this one mile event is the best of the lot. French star Solow, Breeders Cup Classic winner Ravens Pass, wonder filly Minding and the greatest of all time Frankel all feature on the roll of honour in the past decade alone.

We have plenty holding their ground this year in what looks set to be one of the most intriguing contests of the day. Overall though we will be siding with the horse we feel may well prove a class above these rivals.

Top Tips

Roaring Lion to Win @ 9/4

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Race Info

A whopping £1,156,250 in total prize money is up for grabs in this Group 1, one mile contest, which is set to be run on soft ground this year barring any unexpected change.

GoingDistanceGradePrize MoneyRunnersEW Terms
Soft 1m Group 1 £1,156,250 15 Runners 1/5 1-3

Recent Winners

It is the three year olds who have held the edge in this race in the past 10 years with the Classic generation recording seven wins, compared to three for the older runners. Two of the past four editions of this have fallen to France, which offers encouragement to supporters of the current second favourite for the race, Recoletos.

2017 Persuasive 8/1 John Gosden Frankie Dettori
2016 Minding 7/4 Aidan O’Brien Ryan Moore
2015 Solow 11/10 Freddy Head Maxime Guyon
2014 Charm Spirit 5/1 Freddy Head Olivier Peslier
2013 Olympic Glory 11/2 Richard Hannon Snr Richard Hughes

Analysis: Rerouted Roaring Just Too Good

This looked like being a wide open renewal this year, with it being far from certain who would start favourite on the day. The addition of a genuine superstar from the yard of John Gosden does at least look to have solved the favourite dilemma, but will he deliver under what would at first appear to be far from ideal conditions?

Lion Down In Trip But Up To Task

This may not be the trip over which he has achieved his best results, and the ground may be significantly softer than anything we have seen him race on to date, but there must be a chance that the class of Roaring Lion may still see him home in front here. The market certainly thinks so with the John Gosden runner going straight to the head of the betting once it was confirmed that this race, rather than the Champion Stakes, would be his Champions Day objective.

The winner of the Coral-Eclipse, Juddmonte International and Irish Champion Stakes is 6lbs clear of the field on official ratings and yet receives 3lbs from a number of his main market rivals courtesy of the weight for age allowance. Last sighted over this trip when finishing fifth in the Guineas, he was unsuited by the way the race panned out that day and also looks to have improved considerably since.

Laurens To Lead Them A Merry Dance?

This prize has fallen to a filly in each of the past two seasons, and if it is to do so again then the one most likely to do it for the girls is the Karl Burke runner, Laurens. Last season’s Fillies’ Mile heroine began the current campaign with an admirable second in the 1000 Guineas, before going on to win four of her next five starts, all of which came at the very highest level.

The one blot on her copybook came when she failed to stay the 1m4f trip of the Yorkshire Oaks. She’s four from five over this trip though, and having won over 1m2f shouldn’t be too inconvenienced should the conditions turn this into a real test at the distance.

Or Does It All Add Up To A Haggas Win?

One who perhaps shouldn’t be overlooked here is the William Haggas runner, Addeybb. This son of Pivotal does have a fair bit to find with the principles on the book, but the fact that we know he handles soft ground well must count as a major factor in his favour. Beginning the current season with a super smooth win in a soft ground Lincoln Handicap, he then followed up in equally impressive style in a Group 2 at Sandown. Good to firm going ruined his chances on his first start in a Group 1 in the Lockinge last time out, with his trainer promptly putting him away until the ground came in his favour again. Now that the heavens have opened once more, expect to see this one putting his best foot forward and at least giving a few of these something to think about.

Final Verdict: Roaring Lion To Win

Laurens has undoubtedly been one of the stars of the season to date and will no doubt have plenty of supporters on the day. It would take some performance to do it from the front in this field though. We had rated Addeybb each way as the best bet in the race – and still wouldn’t necessarily put you off – until it was confirmed that the mighty Roaring Lion would be lining up here.

Clear of the field on the book, and in possession of a turn of foot unlikely to be matched by any of these rivals, the question marks against the John Gosden star concern the trip and the ground. Already a three time winner at a mile, and with the going effectively stretching the distance out anyway, we aren’t concerned on that score, whilst the progeny of sire Kitten’s Joy tend to go well with give underfoot. It’s the favourite for us here.

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