Welsh Grand National Betting Tips, Winners & History

Next Race: TBD

The next renewal of this race has not been scheduled yet. We will update this once the schedule has been released for next season. The race info, trends and tips shown below will be updated for the next renewal once the final declarations have been made.

Welsh Grand National Betting Tips

Note: The following tips are from 2021. Tips for the next renewal will be added once the final declarations have been made.

Legendary trainer Martin Pipe tops the table in this event with five wins. Pipe is of course now long since retired, and of the trainers represented this year Paul Nicholls, Colin Tizzard, Nigel Twiston-Davies and Ventia Williams boast the best records with two wins apiece.

Taking place in Wales deep in the winter months, this race regularly turns into a real slog. As such it is perhaps not surprising that those carrying a relatively light weight have fared well, with seven of the past nine winners carrying less than 11st on the day.

The past decade has seen just the two market leaders come home in front. That’s not actually too bad a strike-rate for an event so competitive as this, but would still have resulted in a loss of £2.25 to £1 level stakes for supporters of the market leader.

We haven’t seen too many huge surprises over the last 20 years, with 2013 winner Mountainous the longest-priced victor at 20/1. Indeed, aside from Paul Moloney’s charge there has only been one other winner at odds longer than 10/1 in the past 10 runnings of this famous contest. Moreover, 19 of the last 20 winners were sent off at odds of 14/1 or less in their race prior to this, so it really isn’t a contest for major upsets.

Aside from those price trends, the stats tell us to look out for a horse to have finished in at least the top six last time out: that trend has a 100% hit rate over the past two decades. Two more trends able to boast that is that any Welsh National hopeful should ideally have raced within the last 20-55 days and not be a 10 year old. That said, whilst no horse aged 10 has won since Riverside Boy in 1993, we did see Raz De Maree win in 2017 at the ripe old age of 13, whilst Mountainous was 11 when claiming his second win in this one (in 2015).

Secret Reprieve – 4/1

Local handler Evan Williams is yet to win Wales’s biggest race, but he has been knocking on the door of late having sent out four runners to finish in the first four in the past nine years – coming closest with the runner up finish of Firebird Flyer in 2016. If the market is to be believed, the Vale of Glamorgan handler may have his best chance yet of going one better in 2021, as it is his six year old, Secret Reprieve, who is out on his own at the head of the market.

Making only his sixth career start over fences here, this son of Flemensfirth may not have the experience of a number of his rivals, but on the plus side that does mean he is one of the most likely contenders to have something in hand from the assessor. He does also have the look of one who has specifically been laid out for this race; a plan which was likely hatched from the moment he hinted that stamina might be his strong suit when a staying on second to Newtide over 3m at Ffos Las last season.

His seasonal comeback at Haydock didn’t quite go to plan when falling at the sixth fence, but his effort last time out at this track could scarcely have gone better. Cruising up on the inside of the reopposing The Two Amigos and Bobo Mac, he ultimately pulled clear for a 12l success in that 2m7½f event. With that win coming after the weights for this race had been published, he gets in under just a 4lb penalty here, making him look very well in should he handle this step up in trip.

Christmas In April – 10/1

Another runner sneaking in towards the foot of the weights who looks likely to be ideally suited by this marathon test is the Colin Tizzard-trained eight year old, Christmas In April. Boasting career form figures of 312211P in chase contests over 3m or more, and already a three time winner on soft or heavy going, he looks one of the most likely contenders to thrive in the likely attritional conditions we are sure to see. He also seems to enjoy “Nationals”, with two of his previous successes having come in the Devon and Sussex Nationals last season, before he then ended the campaign on something of a sour note when pulled up in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter.

Fast forward to the current campaign, and it was yet another “National” which was on the cards for his seasonal return. This time the Southern version at Fontwell. No match for Cloudy Glen that day – who also goes here – he nevertheless stayed on pleasingly for second in that 3m3½f event and is fully 12lbs better off with his conqueror here.

The piece of form that really stands out for us though is his 8½l rout in that Devon National last season. Being run over 3m6½f and on heavy ground, that event is pretty comparable to this and he gets in off only a 7lb higher mark. With a number of firms offering enhanced each way terms, he looks solid value to hit the frame at a double figure price.

Prime Venture – 14/1

Such are the stamina demands of this event, that a proven ability to go well in the conditions can count for plenty, and one who scores highly in that regard is another of the Evan Williams runners, Prime Venture. This horse seems to have been around for a while now, but is still only nine years of age and, if able to replicate last year’s effort in the race, he should not be too far away at all.

Boasting overall form figures of 2344 in chase contests at this track, the latest of those efforts came when staying on dourly into fourth in this contest 12 months ago. Last year’s winner Potters Corner doesn’t go to post this year, but the second, Truckers Lodge does, and Prime Venture is fully 12lbs better off with that rival for just 2½l. Having sluiced home by 12l on his return at Sedgefield at the beginning of November, he should be primed and ready to go here. Versatile in regards to the going conditions, he is another who looks good value to at least make the frame.