Italy v Wales Betting Tips & Predictions – Saturday 9th February 2019

Italy Flag Rugby Ball
Wales Flag Rugby Ball

Wales made a winning start to their 2019 Six Nations campaign. The tournament was blown open in the opening weekend as Ireland lost at home to England. That result in Dublin has hit the Irish just as they looked to be at the peak of their powers. They were favourites to land more success by winning the tournament, but could it be Wales’ year?

We know it won’t be Italy’s year, they’re out at 5000/1 now to win the tournament after losing their opening game. They went down to Scotland at Murrayfield on Saturday, continuing an awful losing streak in this competition. They need to finally turn things around and beat a top tier side, but can they do that against the Welsh in this clash?

Top Tips

Wales -19.5 Point Handicap @ 8/11

Wales -32 Point Handicap @ 14/5

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Italy News: Azzurri Unlikely to End Dismal Dip

Italy Rugby Warm Up Stadio Olimpico

The hosts aren’t likely to find a way to end their Six Nations drought any time soon. We’re approaching the fourth anniversary of their last victory in the Six Nations. Last weekend showed just how big their problems are, after they failed to stop Scotland early on, with a late flurry adding gloss to the scoreline.

Another Italian Slow Start

The opening day loss to Scotland wasn’t a huge shock. However, the nature of their dismantling in that 33-20 loss was a surprise. They were able to rally and score 17 points in the last 10 minutes, but the damage was already done. The Scots launched into them early on, and that’s left Italy looking out of their depth once again.

Wales News: Promising Welsh Start

Wales v Italy Rugby Union mAtch at the Principality Stadium
Jeff Djevdet, flickr

The Welsh were able to fight back to claim a victory in Paris on Friday night, getting the tournament off to a strong start. They were 16-0 down at the break, but a second half rally put them back in control. They finished that clash on a high and mustered momentum which they can take into their next game.

Signs of Success?

The Welsh were told by boss Warren Gatland that a win in Paris would send them on to glory this year. They’ve met his demand, and now the confidence must be huge. The coach clearly thinks that, saying that his side have, “forgotten how to lose” following their impressive fightback in Paris. That made it 10 wins in a row, and this weekend will surely bring number 11.

Wales Have Options in Rome

Another boost for the visitors is that they’ve been handed a clean bill of health for their second game. They aren’t forced into changes for this trip, which is good news for Gatland. They are set to have a new man leading them out, with centre Jonathan Davies appointed captain for Saturday’s meeting with Italy. While they’ve got all their players available to them, that slight change should give them a little boost here.

Analysis: Winning Run set to Continue

Wales are the obvious favourites for the points in this clash, coming here at 1/25 to win the game. Italy are priced up at 10/1 to secure a home win, while the draw is a massive price of 66/1. The visitors are the clear candidates to get the victory, and we can see them taking the game by the scruff of the neck and delivering a huge margin of victory.

Italy Heading for Another Defeat

Italy have suffered 12 straight defeats against Wales, following on from a shock 2007 win in Rome. The Welsh are aiming to add to their great winning streak here, especially given that they’re approaching this match with a 10 game winning run in internationals. It’s the perfect game for Gatland’s side to keep their run going, and we expect them to comfortably pick up some bonus points in this clash too.

Welsh Rout

We are backing Wales to cruise to a win on Saturday. We think they are great value in the handicap market, especially since they’re unlikely to have the same defensive collapse as Scotland. The Scots had built up a 30 point lead over Italy after 70 minutes, which we expect to happen here and then some. We are backing Wales with a 19.5 point handicap against them, which can be found at a price of 8/11. On top of that, they can be backed at 14/5 to win with a -32 point handicap, which we expect them to clear in Rome.

Recent Matches

There’s been little competition between these two sides over the years. The Welsh have won 23 of their 26 meetings with the Italians, racking up nearly 900 points in that time. With nine wins in 11 trips to Italy, there’s little to doubt about the visitors ahead of this trip.

11th March 2018: Wales 38 – 14 Italy

The latest win in a 12 match winning streak was a comfortable one, as Wales crushed Italy in last year’s Six Nations. They pushed the Italians towards last place in the standings, adding to their troubles against top tier teams. The Welsh bossed both halves of that encounter, and they should do something similar this year.

5th February 2017: Italy 7 – 33 Wales

The Welsh last visited Italy in the 2017 edition of the competition, claiming yet another victory. However, they did have to fight back after going into half time behind. The Welsh were 7-3 down at the break, hitting an unanswered 30 points in the second period to ease to the points.

19th March 2016: Wales 67 – 14 Italy

Wales’ second half display in 2017 managed to beat their first half charge the year before. The hosts were 27-0 up at the break in 2016’s meeting, hitting another 40 points in the second half to record their greatest winning margin in any meeting with the Italians, and their highest ever points tally to boot.

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