Atletico Madrid v Valencia Betting Tips & Preview – Sunday 4th February 2018

Valencia face the very stern test of Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid this weekend as they look to sustain their push for a top four finish this season. Despite being in second place coming into the game, Atletico cannot be considered title challengers with a rampant Barcelona side sitting too far ahead in La Liga. But that doesn't mean they can’t put teams to the sword.

Top Tips

Atletico to win @ 9/20

Both teams to score @ 10/11

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

Atletico Form

The Copa del Rey is always a target for a club like Atletico so they’ll have been disappointed to have been eliminated after losing both legs against Sevilla. It was losing the first bout on home soil which left them with a huge uphill battle and this is the only domestic game they’ve lost at home all season. The Wanda Metropolitano has taken the Vicente Calderon’s status as a fortress and much like the former home, clan sheets are a regular sight. In their last six La Liga matches on their own turf, Atletico have managed an impressive four clean sheets.

Jan Oblak is one of the big reasons why Atletico’s defensive record is so good and the Slovenian racked up his 100th club appearance last weekend, conceding just 54 goals in this time. Earlier on in the season it was their attacking play which saw Simeone’s side drop a lot of points in the league. Antoine Griezmann was particularly out of form but he’s regained his shooting boots and now has three goals in his last three appearances including the opener in last weekend’s win over Las Palmas.

MatchDateScoreResult
Atletico v Las Palmas 28th January 2018 3-0 Win
Sevilla v Atletico 23rd January 2018 3-1 Loss
Atletico v Girona 20th January 2018 1-1 Draw

Valencia Form

Their early season title push may have been derailed long ago but Valencia remain strong candidates for a top four finish which would hand them a place in next season’s Champions League. They’ll need to improve their form quickly though as four defeats from their last six La Liga matches is not a record which will keep them near the top of the table. The worst of the recent losses came against strugglers Las Palmas who claimed just their fourth league win of the season. Two red cards for Valencia played a big part and the first, shown to Gabriel Paulista, was a particularly avoidable one.

Cards have often been brandished when Valencia have been in action this season and only Getafe have seen more this season so the visitors will need to be careful here. On top of a lack of discipline, a lack of recent clean sheets is also a concern for boss Marcelino. The Bats may be scoring regularly but they are on a run of nine league games without a clean sheet. They’ve operated a fairly fearless approach this season but against rather defensive opposition, will Marcelino tinker with his tactics for this game?

MatchDateScoreResult
Valencia v Real Madrid 27th January 2017 1-4 Loss
Deportivo Alaves v Valencia 24th January 2018 2-1(p) Loss (but won tie)
Las Palmas v Valencia 20th January 2018 2-1 Loss

Head to Head Stats

This is fixture that Valencia have won just once in the last 12 occasions, a 3-1 home victory in 2014.

MatchDateScoreResult
Valencia v Atletico 9th September 2017 0-0 Draw
Atletico v Valencia 5th March 2017 3-0 Atletico Win
Valencia v Atletico 2nd October 2016 0-2 Atletico Win

Injuries & Suspensions

Neither side has a lengthy injury list but both look set to be without a couple of important men.

Atletico

  • Felipe Luis - Was suffering from a hamstring problem but now has a heel issue.
  • Diego Costa - Missed clash against Las Palmas and is a doubt.

Valencia

  • Goncalo Guedes - PSG loanee was subbed at half time against Rea Madrid after feeling a thigh twinge.
  • Jeison Murillo - Influential defender is on the path to recovery, has a small chance of being ready in time.

Betting Tips

Los Rojiblancos approach the game as the strong favourites while their opponents trade at a big money price of 13/2.

Atletico to win

Atletico have won four of their last league matches at the Wanda Metropolitano, the only exception being a fairly uninspiring 1-1 draw with Girona. You can’t completely rule out another stalemate here as Simeone’s side have often won less than convincingly such as during clashes against Real Sociedad and Deportivo Alaves. They are a team who can often grind out a result though and with improvements made since earlier on the season, they are worth backing for the win.

Both teams to score

As Atletico have conceded a mere nine goals in 21 La Liga games you might feel like this is a bit of risky bet. You have to remember though that Valencia are one of the most deadly sides going forward in Spain and games involving them regularly see goals. In fact, across all competitions, both teams have found the back of the net in Valencia’s last five matches. On top of this, the Oranges have only failed to score in one away game this season so they can be fancied to fire past the Atletico rear-guard.

Atletico to win 2-1

While there is reason to think Valencia will be capable of scoring this game, you shouldn’t fancy them getting many against La Liga’s best defence. Although Atletico will be without Diego Costa, they should still have just enough fire power to outscore their opponents with Jeison Murillo likely still absent from the Valencia defence. A 2-1 home win can be backed at odds of 7/1, making it an attractive side bet.

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