Melbourne Cup (Flemington) Betting Tips & Predictions– Tuesday 6th November 2018

It’s a big one Down Under on Tuesday. The biggest Australian race of the year – bar none – in fact, and it is the most valuable staying handicap run anywhere in the world. A field of 24 runners goes to post once again for “the race that stops a nation”. That’s right, it’s time for the Melbourne Cup once again. A race well worth setting your alarm clocks for.

If the prize is to fall to an overseas runner this year, we fancy it may well be one of the Irish contingent who grab the gold. The bet for us though is a horse from the home team who may just have been a little overlooked.

Top Tips

Youngstar each way @ 14/1

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Race Info

Two miles is the trip for this Group 1 Handicap contest, set to be run on good ground this year and offering £4,219,653 in total prize money.

GoingDistanceGradePrize MoneyRunnersEW Terms
Good 2m Group 1 £4,219,653 Runners 1/4 1-4

Recent Winners

There are a couple of pretty strong trends in evidence here in terms of the age of, and weight carried by the winner. All of the past 10 winners have been between three and six years of age, and all bar one has been saddled with 8st 9lb or less on the day.

The Australian runners just hold the edge over this period, with six wins as opposed to four for the overseas raiders.

2017 Rekindling 14/1 Joseph O’Brien Corey Brown
2016 Almandin 10/1 Robert Hickmott Kerrin McEvoy
2015 Prince Of Penzance 100/1 Darren Weir Michelle Payne
2014 Protectionist 7/1 Andreas Wohlerr Ryan Moore
2013 Fiorente 6/1 Gai Waterhouse Damien Oliver

Analysis: Williams And Waller To Claim The “W”

Always one of the truly international handicap contests of the year, that looks to be the case once again this season with representatives from Britain, Ireland, Japan and of course Australia.

Like most races, it’s easy to be drawn towards the head of the market here. Backing the market leader hasn’t really paid off in recent years though, with just one winning favourite in the past decade. A period over which we have also seen winners at 14/1, 19/1, 40/1 and a monster 100/1 in 2015.

Yucatan Can

As a four year old set to carry 8st 8lb, Aidan O’Brien’s Yucatan fits both of the key trends outlined above and looks set to start favourite on the day. Having seen his son Joseph O’Brien land the pot last year with Rekindling, can Aidan follow suit this time around? If Yucatan’s win in the Herbert Power Stakes is anything to go by, then he must hold every chance. The son of Galileo pulverised a decent field that day, pulling fully seven lengths clear before being heavily eased towards the line and cruising home. That came over 1m4f, and therefore the trip poses a question, but the way he travelled that day certainly suggested he has every chance of seeing it out.

Moore and Moher The Winning Combination?

Sticking with the Aidan O’Brien runners, another to really catch the eye is the mount of Ryan Moore, The Cliffsofmoher. It wouldn’t be the greatest surprise were this one to prove to be the class act in this field. Still just four years old, it was only last season that he was being beaten by three quarters of a length in the Epsom Derby, and he has spent the bulk of his career butting heads with the best that Britain and Ireland has to offer. He will be having his third start in Australia here having finished a two and a half-length fourth to Benbatl on his first outing, and then going down by just under two lengths to Best Solution in the Caulfield Cup last time out. The encouraging thing with both of those runs was the manner in which he stayed on close to home, suggesting that this further step up in trip may well bring him closer still.

Waller Runner The Star Of The Show

Another to have gone into our notebook from that Caulfield Cup contest is the Chris Waller trained Youngstar. Beaten by just a length by the incomparable Winx over 1m2f two starts back, he showed good pace in that race to briefly go with the turbo charged filly inside the final furlong and pass everything else in the field. Stepped up to 1m4f for the first-time last time out he found himself shuffled right back in the field and having to switch wide in the straight before doing all his best work late to go down by four and a half lengths. That looked a fine trial for this and being by High Chaparral who sired last year’s winner Rekindling, there looks to be a fair chance that he will see out this additional distance. He can go very well for Craig Williams.

Final Verdict: Youngstar each way

There are plenty in with chances here. Yucatan is easy to fancy, but just a little on the short side for our liking. The Cliffsofmoher makes more appeal at an each way price, but is passed over in favour of our pick from the home team.

Youngstar looks to have a nice mix of speed and stamina, fits the key trends for the race and sneaks in towards the foot of the weights. At a nice each way price, he’s the one for us.

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