Celebration Mile Stakes Betting Tips & Predictions – Goodwood, Saturday 24th August 2019

We have a glut of high quality racing action this coming Saturday, and whilst the final day of York’s Ebor meeting may hog the headlines, punters shouldn’t overlook the excellent card on offer at Goodwood. The milers take to the stage in the feature, with a top class field set to line up at the Sussex venue.

William Haggas’ three-year-olds have been doing the business for him this season with the promising Skardu best in the category. He’s not quite as red hot as some of this competitors here but we’re fancying the colt to justify his fairly short price.

Top Tips

Skardu to win @ 5/2

Odds correct at time of writing but may have changed since. Check site for latest prices.

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Race Info

1m is the trip for this Group 2 contest, set to be run on good to soft going this year and offering £133,750 in total prize money.

GoingDistanceClassPrize MoneyRunnersEW Terms
Good to soft 1m Group 2 £133,750 6 1/5 1-3

Recent Winners

This has been a good race for those towards the head of the market in recent years, with five winning favourites and just one winner returning an SP of bigger than 9/2 in the past decade.

Last year Oisin Murphy made Celebration Mile history on board Beat The Bank by becoming the first jockey to secure three consecutive wins in the race. He’ll attempt to make it four in a row here as he’s been paired up with Andrew Balding’s Happy Power.

YearWinnerSPTrainerJockey
2018 Beat The Bank 11/8 Andrew Balding Oisin Murphy
2017 Lightning Spear Evs David Simcock Oisin Murphy
2016 Lightning Spear 4/1 David Simcock Oisin Murphy
2015 Kodi Bear 4/5 Clive Cox Gerald Mosse
2014 Bow Creek 9/2 Mark Johnston Joe Fanning

Analysis: Going to prove decisive

Beat Le Bon (5/1) is the in-form name among the Celebration Mile field, enjoying a run of three consecutive wins, but will Goodwood’s softening ground put an end to his winning streak? The three-year-old secured a fine course and distance win earlier in the month but then the going was good to firm. Rainfall over the three weeks since has rather softened things up with the predicted forecast now good to soft, going Beat Le Bon has never impressed on.

Skardu makes strong claim

Skardu is without a win in three races but William Haggas won’t be displeased with the way he’s performed this season. A third place finish in a competitive 2,000 Guineas renewal followed by two fourth place finishes in the Irish 2,000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes is a highly credible return. It takes a talented horse to finish ahead of the three-year-old and there might not be any among this Group 2 field that has quite enough quality. Having only made five starts during his career, he’s open to further improvements especially over a one mile trip.

Ground no issue for Duke Of Hazzard

Much like Beat Le Bon, Duke Of Hazzard’s (9/4) Glorious Goodwood win came on good to firm ground but he’s unlikely to suffer from racing in muddier conditions. A year ago, he performed better than expected on good to soft ground as he very narrowly lost a Listed contest in Deauville. He’s also put in a decent shift in the French equivalent of the 2,000 Guineas which was run on particularly testing ground. Seemingly able to run on any state of turf, the two time Goodwood winner stands a decent chance of success here.

Pace a potential problem for Power

Happy Power (7/2) was never in danger of winning the Sussex Stakes but to finish fourth as a 33/1 outsider is something that will offer Andrew Balding encouragement. His grey colt spent much of the race in midfield before offering a push late towards the line on his way to finishing fourth. As solid as the run was, the pace was quite slow, much like it was when Happy Power won the Ganton Stakes at York. There’s no questioning he’s a decent finisher during steadily run races but as we saw during the Jersey Stakes, a faster tempo set by a prominent runner is liable to tire him out.

Final Verdict: Skardu to win

We’ve not got a large field for this year’s Celebration Mile but you’d be pushed to say any of those involved don’t stand a chance. Some make a better claim than others though and while we can see Duke Of Hazzard running well, we’re placing our faith in Skardu to shine as he makes the slight step down in class.

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